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Claude enters Rock Tunnel, surpassing its progress in any previous run

Claude catches Clefairy

Claude obtains HM01 Cut by step 39000

Any member of Claude's team learns Dig

Claude obtains 3 gym badges by step 50000

Claude obtains a Bicycle

Claude 4 Opus is the model that plays the game (not Claude 4 Sonnet)

Claude obtains 1 gym badge by step 20000

Claude gives a thirsty guard a drink

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan

Lack of thinking text display is fixed before 5/22 6 PM Central Time

Claude adds 18 or more Pokemon to his Pokedex (surpassing his completion from the previous run)

Claude adds his starter to his party by step 400

Claude catches Nidoran

Claude reaches Pewter City by step 5000

Claude reaches Cerulean City by step 20000

Claude reaches Vermilion City by step 30000

Another model defeats the Champion before Claude (in a run started after Claude 4 was released)

Claude blacks out by step 50000.

Claude's current team has at least 3 Pokémon by step 30000.

Claude catches Spearow

Claude evolves SPIKE into Nidoking

Claude enters Mt. Moon by step 6000.

Claude defeats a Team Rocket member by step 7000

Claude catches Oddish

Manifest begins

Claude spends less than 72 hours in Mt. Moon (less than 72 hr from first entrance to stepping onto eastern Route 4)

Claude defeats Lt. Surge by step 30000

Claude uses CUT on a cuttable tree for the first time more than 1000 steps after obtaining the HM

Claude finishes Rock Tunnel but takes longer than it took him to beat Mt. Moon the first time (50 hours)

Claude obtains Farfetch'd

Claude catches Drowzee

Claude enters Rock Tunnel before step 40000

Another model beats the Champion (following criteria like https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/in-progress-will-an-llm-become-a-po)

Claude reaches Lavender Town

Claude reaches Lavender Town before step 55000

Claude obtains a Coin Case

Claude uses Dig on the SS Anne

Claude evolves luna into Clefable

SPIKE reaches level 25

Claude gets 4 gym badges

Claude renames a Pokémon

Claude obtains the Lift Key

Claude stands next to a sleeping Snorlax

Claude obtains HM02 Fly

Claude evolves wings into Fearow

Claude gambles in the Game Corner

Claude catches Weedle

Claude obtains Hitmonlee

Claude obtains the Silph Scope

Claude enters Erika's gym

Claude catches Pikachu

Claude enters Mt. Moon after step 20000

Claude obtains HM05 Flash

Claude misspells a Pokemon name

Changes are made to help Claude see cuttable trees

Claude obtains Dugtrio

Claude buys a Magikarp

Claude re-prompts the Rocket in Mt. Moon to try and give it the fossil

Claude releases any Pokemon

Claude enters Safari Zone

The Area Hints section of the prompt is changed during the run

Joe Biden dies

Claude beats Erika or obtains the Lift Key by step 200000

Claude catches any legendary Pokemon (Articuno, Zapdos, Moltres, Mewtwo)

Claude defeats the Champion

Claude 4 Opus is #1 in the chatbot arena leaderboard

Claude picks Charmander

Claude takes more than 2000 steps between arriving in Pewter city and entering Pewter gym

Claude picks Dome Fossil (again)

Claude spends less than 24 hours in Mt. Moon (less than 24 hr from first entrance to stepping onto Route 4)

Claude reaches Pewter City by step 3000

Claude has a party with 4 or more Pokemon when he first challenges Brock

Claude's starter is lower level than another party member by step 100000.

Claude has a full, six-member party before step 10000

Claude spends less than 48 hours in Mt. Moon (less than 48 hr from first entrance to stepping onto eastern Route 4)

Claude blacks out 3 times in Mt. Moon before reaching Cerulean City

Claude reaches Cerulean City by step 12500

Claude's current team has at least 4 Pokémon by step 20000.

Claude's two highest level Pokémon are more than 30 levels apart by step 100000.

Claude is still stuck on the S.S. Anne on step 21000

Claude reaches Celadon City by step 35000

Claude uses CUT a second time to successfully escape the area with Lt. Surge's gym before step 23000

Claude uses CUT a second time to successfully escape the area with Lt. Surge's gym before step 24000

Ron Weasley is a redhead

Harry Potter is white

At least one named character from the book has their race changed

Snape is black

Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

Premieres in 2027

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

Malfoy has white blonde hair

Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

Fred and George are twins irl

Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

There’s a scene set before Harry is born

Peeves is a reoccurring character

Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

Hermione is white

mandrake root on screen

A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

A house elf is shown on screen

Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

It ends on a cliff hanger

The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

It's woke

The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

At least one of the actors is transgender

VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

We get AGI before it premieres

Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

Premieres in 2026

Features an explicitly transgender character

Fred and George have the same actor

JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

Hermione is black

Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

Hermione is Indian

Yudkowsky makes an appearance

HPMOR is referenced

One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.

YES

"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

"lower taxes"

"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

"keep men out of women’s sports"

"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

"stop all COVID mandates"

"more jobs for American workers"

"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

"cut the number of school administrators"

"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

"bigger paychecks"

"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

"passing a digital bill of rights"

"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

declassify the 'Epstein files'

"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

"increase fairness through price transparency"

"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

"end surprise medical billing"

"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

Any character from S1-3 is shown on screen

At least one named character dies

We will see any character from S3 in S4 of White Lotus

A named character goes swimming

Any named character takes drugs

Oscar winner part of the acting cast

Someone commits adultery

We see more than two people die over the course of the season

A gun gets shot

There is an interracial physical relationship (kiss/sex/marriage?)

Lesbian scene (romantic kissing or more)

Belinda returns on the show

Full frontal male nudity

Group sex with >2 named characters

A hotel employee dies

The season takes place in Europe

Two named characters talk inside an airport terminal

At least two named characters from previous seasons appear

At least one death occurs by accident

Someone insists they've witnessed a supernatural or divine event

At least one character is non-binary gendered

A security guard or a bodyguard is a named character

There is a mention about how guests keep dying at white lotus resorts

Hotel manager is gay or bi

Someone gets fired or quits dramatically

No rich person (over $10M net worth) acts like a douche

A medical doctor is shown on screen

9 episodes long (+1 from last, like each previous season)

Zion returns to the show

A named character is terminally ill

Alluding to, mentioning, or performing (on or off screen) bestiality

No heterosexual character is murdered

At least one named character is a sex worker

Tanya gets mentioned

A named character goes hiking

Somebody speaks Spanish (≥5 consecutive words)

Nobody dead from gun

We will see Frank (S3) in S4 of White Lotus

Someone is arrested

There will be a funeral shown on screen

A camel is shown on screen

A named character is shown to be vegan

Kidnapping/Abudction

Someone gets tied up or gagged (non-consensually)

We see more than five people die over the course of the season

The season takes place in Africa

There are at least three named characters under the age of 18

Someone drowns

A named character goes scuba diving

Snow is shown on screen

The season takes place in South America

The hotel only serves vegan food

The season takes place mainly in Asia

The pilots of the stationary coast guard plane

The air traffic controllers

The procedures themselves

The pilots of the landing Japan Airlines Airbus A350

The airplane manufacturers

The maintenance crew

YES

YES

Propose a European AI Research Council (CERN for AI)

By the end of the mandate, energy prices will on average be lower (inflation-adjusted)

More than double Europol's staff over time

The next long-term budget will include a regime of conditionality for the Rule of Law

Triple the number of European Border and Coast Guards to 30,000

Set up a President's Youth Advisory Board with young people from all Member States

Expand the Rule of Law Report to include a Single Market dimension and accession countries

Propose a new European Biotech Act

Respond to all of Parliament's Article 225 resolutions with legislative proposals

Propose a 90% emission-reduction target for 2040 in a European Climate Law

Implement a right to disconnect

Hold European Citizens' Panels every year

YES

NO

YES