OptionVotes
YES
NO
13250
8311
1251
800
1399
715
OptionProbability
Observing a temporary ceasefire with US & Israel
At peace with US & Israel
The de-facto head of state is generally understood to be more friendly to US interests than Ali Khamenei
Actively transitioning (or already transitioned) to a non-Islamic Republic form of government
It has formally agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons
Occupied by (a coalition including) the US
The de-facto head of state is neither endorsed nor selected by either the Guardian Council or Assembly of Experts
There is no de-facto head of state
Failed state / anarchy
In an ongoing civil war
50
31
29
20
14
10
153
65
