Guess News

OpenAI

Other/None

Palantir Technologies

Anthropic

Databricks

Adobe

Snowflake

NVIDIA

$1bn - $10bn

$10bn - $50bn

Less than $1bn

$50bn - $100bn

500+

300-500

150-300

100-150

1-50

Isaac likes experimenting

You'd say you're more of a dog person than a cat person

You've been in a desert once

You regret ever making WvM (feel free to n/a if you'd rather not say)

You have ever looked through list of a Manifold user's bets to determine their position on some question

You've been vegetarian for >1 continuous year

(if you're not married) you've thought about marrying your current partner (if you're in a relationship)

You like listening to violin more than you like listening to piano

You're older than me (I'm 23)

you consider your partner to be your best friend as well

You're younger than 30

You think it's fine for minors to date adults

You consider yourself part of the rationality sphere

You think of yourself as a dog person more than a cat person

You seem to enjoy indie stuff more than the average person does

you've defected on some sort of deal you made with another person

The first book you remember reading in your life has an animal as its main character

You tend to wear the same outfit every day.

You think the effective altruism philosophy is good but the community overall is ineffective in implementing that philosophy

You've spent a day in which you read a (single) book (or similar) for 10+ hrs

You're an effective altruist

You are qorrenqial

You've read the CFAR Handbook

You've held a gun in your hands before

You've fired a gun at a target before

You've jumped out of a plane

You have attended some program or camp organised by MIRI

You've knowingly misresolved a market once even though you didn't get called out for it

You've been to a nightclub

You've passed out from drinking alcohol

You like to eat out more than you like to cook and eat

You've worked with LED strip lights

You've wondered what it'd be like to have a different name

*You* have more than 6 stuffed animals

You know >4 programming langauges

You know >= 3 natural languages (in at least one of reading, speaking, or hearing understanding)

You've felt desires to purchase a car with mana

You have a political belief that'd cause at least one close friend to cut ties if they knew about it

You wish you spent significantly less time on Manifold

You sleep more during 7am->7pm hours than during 7pm->7am hours

You prefer if these answers start with "You" than with "isaac"

You feel you're the smartest member of your close family (mother, father, siblings)

You have thought about shooting lasers from your eyes at traffic lights

You have once made a joke about your name's similarity with Martin Luther King Jr.

You think the effective altruism community is ineffective at PR and image management

she like math, chess, speedcubing, and minecraft

she likes to say "how the fox are you doing"

she likes coding

she likes cabbage

she is friends with an imo member on discord

NULL (stays open to avoid market closure)

Catnee considers AI safety work to be in general very valuable

Catnee will trade on this market, but only after resolving "Catnee will not trade on this market"

Catnee always switches to the glowing eye pfp when up to serious mischief

Catnee will be repaid the m567k stolen by @ian

Catnee believes in the righteous power of death to right the ills of birth

Catnee is an AI planning on destroying the world before 2030

Catnee is an Oligarch IRL

Catnee likes to go hiking

First-personal quantum dynamics

Yes Equals No

Why Nobody Cares About The Title of This Paper

Comment on Yes Equals No

Is It True that Nobody Cares About The Title of This Paper?

Comment on "Indefinite Quantum Causality"

Against Decoherence

Against classicality

Neither Copenhagen, nor Everettian

Decoherence Sucks

YES

YES

Other

1M-10M

<10K (includes negative numbers)

10M-100M

100M-1B

100K-1M

100-1K

1K-10K

10K-100K

YES

CodeandSolder likes the TV show Breaking Bad

You like coders more than you like soldiers

You plan to resolve this answer to "NO"

You consider yourself to be to the political left of the average Democrat

<placeholder, do not resolve>