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Prediction markets for Guinness

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.35%chance

444648

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

753

Which "Almost Impossible" feat will be accomplished next?

Feb 22, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

113536

OptionProbability

Quintuple jump landed in figure skating competition

Shot put thrown >24.00 meters

15+ balls juggled successfully

110+ mph fastball thrown in professional baseball game

Stone skipped 89+ times

90+ yard field goal kicked in American football

Quintuple corkscrew landed in tricking

>60 kilometers cycled in one hour

100 meter dash completed in <9.00 seconds

NBA player with >1200 career free throw attempts averages 95%+ completion rate

39

22

14

6

6

6

4

2

1

1

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Jan 4, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.4%chance

61933

OptionProbability

YES

NO

6496

4097

When will the next full episode of Knights of Guinevere be released?

Mar 10, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1819

OptionProbability

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

Q4 2026

Q1 2027

Q2 2027

Q3 2027

Q4 2027

After Q4 2027

Q1 2026

24

24

24

6

6

6

5

5

1

Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?

Dec 31, 9:59 PMJan 1, 7:00 AM

55.59%chance

22689

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2028

1960

In what year will Equatorial Guinea move its capital to Ciudad de la Paz?

Feb 1, 1:04 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2655

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

Never (scrapped)

Other

2024

2025

20

20

20

20

20

1

1

Will the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declare Dracunculiasis (Guinea worm disease) as eradicated by 2030?

Dec 16, 11:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.68%chance

6268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

719

677

Will Bougainville Island achieve independence from Papua New Guinea before 2029?

Dec 2, 5:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.52%chance

4107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

151

66

[Knights of Guinevere] Will she ever find her knights?

Oct 4, 5:30 PMOct 4, 5:22 PM

75.38%chance

275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

175

57

Will there be another Knights of Guinevere episode by the end of 2026?

Sep 21, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.38%chance

475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

175

57

Will the domino-toppling world record be broken before 2030?

May 1, 9:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

49.71%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

999

Will Jose Luis Ricon, Alexey Guzey, or Qiaochu Yuan make it into the guinness book of world records for anythingby2060

Jul 23, 7:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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