Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026
At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.
Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.
US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)
Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026
Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
US ground troops enter Iran by May 1, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026
Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027
US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)
Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026
Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026
The US-Iran war remains ongoing as of December 31, 2026
US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.
US military casualties exceed 500 by December 31, 2026
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026
Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026
FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026
Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026
Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.
Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026
The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026
Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026
US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026
US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026
The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026
Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027
Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026
US activates military draft by December 31, 2026
US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026
Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026
