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Prediction markets for Hacks

Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be hacked within 12 months of its release date?

Feb 3, 2:45 PMJun 4, 10:59 PM

46.62%chance

12437581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1189

948

Was SBF behind the FTX hack?

Nov 12, 6:06 AMJan 1, 8:01 AM

3.51%chance

12519987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11029

989

Will the alleged 2022/11/11 FTX hack turn out to be an inside job?

Nov 12, 8:46 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

10.47%chance

233289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1835

491

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

73.84%chance

151472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1936

988

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

86.78%chance

221450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2411

1180

Will any hack of a Tesla vehicle result in someone's death or serious injury before 2026?

Dec 4, 6:41 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.03%chance

151139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1422

875

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

28.12%chance

121007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1017

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1)

Apr 8, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

13842

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

US Crypto reserve hacked or disappeared before January 20, 2029?

Mar 25, 1:45 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

35.72%chance

7767

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1341

745

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

60.73%chance

18676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1740

1045

Will any UWaterloo students hack MIT by hoisting the Waterloo flag/mascot on top of any MIT building by 2031

Mar 21, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.49%chance

4199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

71

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