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Prediction markets for Half

Will Elon Musk get more than half of his 2018 $55 billion Tesla pay package

Jan 31, 4:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

99.2%chance

6832531

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15434

277

Will US obesity be half or less of the current rate in 2050?

Nov 24, 12:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.78%chance

11725132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1938

845

Will Half-Life 3 be released by end of 2030

Mar 26, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.65%chance

9523750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12747

6608

Will Portal 3, Team Fortress 3, or Half-Life 3 come out before 2033?

Jun 28, 4:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.12%chance

466279

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1236

896

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

Jun 1, 6:33 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.37%chance

234539

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

862

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

Apr 14, 3:22 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

40.58%chance

673057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

932

Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?

Mar 26, 1:08 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

66%chance

271666

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1531

423

Will Gabe Newell be alive on the day Half Life 3 releases?

Mar 24, 4:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.97%chance

431215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2190

1267

Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?

Jun 5, 5:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.47%chance

8726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

808

If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?

Mar 10, 7:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66%chance

29621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2161

1890

Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2050)

Oct 14, 1:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.63%chance

14226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

978

What will be the half life of Flerovium-298? (Log scale)

Nov 24, 5:22 PMNov 29, 7:59 AM

28.7%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

94

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