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Prediction markets for Half

Will Elon Musk get more than half of his 2018 $55 billion Tesla pay package

Jan 31, 4:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

99.25%chance

6831737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16227

271

Will US obesity be half or less of the current rate in 2050?

Nov 24, 12:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.35%chance

11424627

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2203

734

Will Half-Life 3 be released by end of 2030

Mar 26, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69.6%chance

9122342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12638

6851

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

Jun 1, 6:33 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

53.48%chance

203771

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

933

Will Bad Bunny wear a dress during the Super Bowl Half Time Show?

Jan 23, 10:59 AMFeb 8, 11:59 PM

31.49%chance

503755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1475

678

More than half of humans will be overweight or obese by end of 2035?

Mar 2, 1:31 PMDec 31, 12:37 PM

26.87%chance

472616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1316

900

Will Half-Life 3 be released in 2026?

Dec 12, 10:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28%chance

312357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

63

Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?

Mar 26, 1:08 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

61%chance

261350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1420

487

Will Gabe Newell be alive on the day Half Life 3 releases?

Mar 24, 4:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.97%chance

431215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2190

1267

If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?

Mar 10, 7:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.38%chance

27558

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2247

1847

Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2050)

Oct 14, 1:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.63%chance

14226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

978

What will be the half life of Flerovium-298? (Log scale)

Nov 24, 5:22 PMNov 29, 7:59 AM

28.7%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

94

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