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Prediction markets for Half

Will Elon Musk get more than half of his 2018 $55 billion Tesla pay package

Jan 31, 4:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

99.21%chance

6832422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15543

276

Will US obesity be half or less of the current rate in 2050?

Nov 24, 12:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.58%chance

11625082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1888

869

Will Half-Life 3 be released by end of 2030

Mar 26, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69.53%chance

9523650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12647

6831

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

Jun 1, 6:33 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

56.35%chance

234521

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1136

880

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

Apr 14, 3:22 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

45%chance

632824

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

834

More than half of humans will be overweight or obese by end of 2035?

Mar 2, 1:31 PMDec 31, 12:37 PM

25.76%chance

482666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1366

882

Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?

Mar 26, 1:08 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

59.37%chance

261372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1387

509

Will Gabe Newell be alive on the day Half Life 3 releases?

Mar 24, 4:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.97%chance

431215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2190

1267

Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?

Jun 5, 5:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.28%chance

7706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

788

If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?

Mar 10, 7:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66%chance

29621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2161

1890

Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2050)

Oct 14, 1:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.63%chance

14226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

978

What will be the half life of Flerovium-298? (Log scale)

Nov 24, 5:22 PMNov 29, 7:59 AM

28.7%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

94

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