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Top stories

Bill Chisholm Completes $6.1 Billion Record Purchase of Boston Celtics With Four New Investors, Pagliuca Retains Stake

Bill Chisholm Completes $6.1 Billion Record Purchase of Boston Celtics With Four New Investors, Pagliuca Retains Stake

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7 months ago

Prediction markets for Haveli

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

94.08%chance

9719455619

OptionVotes

NO

YES

21757

8619

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

1.68%chance

533838789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7951

147

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.06%chance

826508702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57414

10596

Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?

Jun 8, 6:16 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

10.77%chance

361294240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2464

675

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25%chance

253103473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1788

550

By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?

Apr 12, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.78%chance

26955393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

974

957

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

32.8%chance

6122391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13939

7262

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.69%chance

8616597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12850

7975

Will Sora have ads two years after launch?

Oct 1, 5:16 PMSep 30, 5:12 PM

58.04%chance

2211675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11762

8502

Will I have a baby with my decade-younger boyfriend by 2029?

Aug 22, 11:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45.41%chance

377342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10935

9149

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

46.58%chance

263857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11131

8894

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.86%chance

252362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11023

9072

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