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Top stories

Bill Chisholm Completes $6.1 Billion Record Purchase of Boston Celtics With Four New Investors, Pagliuca Retains Stake

Bill Chisholm Completes $6.1 Billion Record Purchase of Boston Celtics With Four New Investors, Pagliuca Retains Stake

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1 year ago

Prediction markets for Haveli

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

96.16%chance

100610473068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

32195

8099

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

1.3%chance

553926462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9092

129

Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?

Jun 8, 6:16 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

6.15%chance

600533382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

41061

17836

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

69114

9469

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.72%chance

12942257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13747

7005

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

31.26%chance

7024069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14460

7017

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.44%chance

4819304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

860

Will I have a baby with my decade-younger boyfriend by 2029?

Aug 22, 11:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45.52%chance

387378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10909

9171

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.55%chance

234541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10073

9882

Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?

Sep 20, 11:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.86%chance

193027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11784

8486

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.45%chance

282492

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10933

9146

Will I still have a notable injury to my left knee after a year

Jun 12, 12:44 AMApr 25, 4:00 PM

44.24%chance

101427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11227

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