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Prediction markets for Head Start

Which of these military conflicts will escalate to war in 2025?

Jan 1, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9752434

OptionProbability

Israel / Iran

Nigeria / Cameroon

Balochistan / Anyone

India / Pakistan

Central African Republic Civil War

Iraqi Conflict

Bangladesh / Anyone

Kurdistan / Anyone

United States / Iran

Azerbaijan / Armenia

100

100

72

28

24

15

14

13

10

9

Will Jaime Maussan's 'nonhuman beings' (2023) still be considered an 'elaborate hoax' by Wikipedia in 2030?

Dec 20, 3:28 AMJan 2, 3:59 AM

94.17%chance

1814147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1736

912

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19679

5082

Will Nick Sirianni be the head coach of the Eagles at the start of the 2025 season?

Oct 13, 9:42 PMSep 1, 3:59 AM

99%chance

109609

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9950

101

Chechnya confronts Russia before the end of Russia-Ukraine war?

Jul 8, 9:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.83%chance

394332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2790

612

Conditional on an “FDA for AI” being established in the US, who will head it?

Oct 24, 11:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

202320

OptionProbability

Other

Paul Christiano

Jason Matheny

Max Tegmark

David Barnes

Alka Patel

Natasha Crampton

Yoshua Bengio

Ajeya Cotra

Chris Olah

Neel Nanda

Yann Le Cun

Geoffrey Hinton

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Timnit Gebru

Margaret Mitchell

64

6

5

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will David Sacks hold a U.S. Cabinet-level position (including “acting” ) in Donald Trump's administration during 2025?

Jul 7, 1:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.64%chance

61400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1749

572

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will "Chameleon Flow" receive 25,000 listens on Soundcloud within six months of its release?

Jul 8, 12:58 PMMar 8, 11:25 AM

18.43%chance

101310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2104

475

Will any head of executive department appointed in the 2025-2029 Administration leave office in 2025?

Nov 10, 10:44 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

57.38%chance

11511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

862

Will any current NATO head of state start a podcast and release at least 5 episodes before 2030?

Sep 11, 3:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.42%chance

10164

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

130

Will Kyle Whittingham be the head coach of U of Utah football team before the start of the 2025 season?

Nov 18, 6:09 PMSep 2, 5:59 AM

81.52%chance

2110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

48

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