Health AI News

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49%chance

19129348

OptionVotes

YES

1020

980

By which year will AI significantly extend the human lifespan (by at least 20 years)?

Sep 8, 9:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

131797

OptionProbability

2060 or later

2030–2039

2040–2049

2050–2059

Before 2030

Never

Will AI take over most mental health therapy jobs by end of 2030?

Apr 21, 2:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.2%chance

351386

OptionVotes

YES

1129

936

Does drinking from plastic bottles actually cause negative health effects in humans by the best evidence in 2034?

Dec 5, 2:45 PMDec 5, 4:59 AM

74.3%chance

141260

OptionVotes

YES

1700

588

Does wearing polyester clothing actually cause negative health effects in humans according to the best evidence in 2034?

Dec 5, 3:29 AMDec 5, 4:59 AM

77.48%chance

121254

OptionVotes

YES

1855

539

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035?

Dec 4, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.62%chance

7955

OptionVotes

YES

1715

583

What will AI's contribution to the economy look like in 2030?

Oct 8, 6:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16883

OptionProbability

AI produces highly-customized forms of entertainment

Other

AI is integrated into IDEs and provides suggestions to programmers

AI is used for drug discovery

Managers consult AI while making decisions

AI is integrated into compilers and makes code run faster

AI designs hardware for industrial processes

AI chatbots provide mental health support, boosting productivity

Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?

Apr 14, 7:22 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.82%chance

22556

OptionVotes

YES

1098

945

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

179

Any province legalizes psilocybin for recreational use?

Feb 1, 11:40 AMDec 17, 11:59 PM

9.62%chance

4145

OptionVotes

YES

1040

996

Will Casey Means be confirmed as Surgeon General?

Feb 26, 8:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.59%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

135

Health AI News

Prediction markets for Health AI

Prediction markets for Health AI

Prediction markets for Health AI

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

By which year will AI significantly extend the human lifespan (by at least 20 years)?

Will AI take over most mental health therapy jobs by end of 2030?

Does drinking from plastic bottles actually cause negative health effects in humans by the best evidence in 2034?

Does wearing polyester clothing actually cause negative health effects in humans according to the best evidence in 2034?

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035?

What will AI's contribution to the economy look like in 2030?

Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Any province legalizes psilocybin for recreational use?

Will Casey Means be confirmed as Surgeon General?

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