Health AI News

When will PEPFAR funding be unfrozen?

Mar 15, 10:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5232486

OptionProbability

After 2025 or not at all

July-December

May or June

April

March

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.08%chance

18928440

OptionVotes

YES

1019

982

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.33%chance

2128231

OptionVotes

YES

26661

3751

Will AI writers replace all jobs for human writers by the end of 2025?

Jan 14, 2:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.25%chance

339086

OptionVotes

YES

6211

785

Does drinking from plastic bottles actually cause negative health effects in humans by the best evidence in 2034?

Dec 5, 2:45 PMDec 5, 4:59 AM

74.3%chance

141260

OptionVotes

YES

1700

588

Does wearing polyester clothing actually cause negative health effects in humans according to the best evidence in 2034?

Dec 5, 3:29 AMDec 5, 4:59 AM

77.4%chance

111250

OptionVotes

YES

1851

540

Will AI take over most mental health therapy jobs by end of 2030?

Apr 21, 2:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.49%chance

331236

OptionVotes

YES

998

979

Yann LeCun leaves Meta by mid 2027

May 24, 1:51 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

49.87%chance

91118

OptionVotes

YES

1003

997

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

What will AI's contribution to the economy look like in 2030?

Oct 8, 6:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11713

OptionProbability

AI produces highly-customized forms of entertainment

AI is integrated into IDEs and provides suggestions to programmers

Other

Managers consult AI while making decisions

AI is used for drug discovery

AI designs hardware for industrial processes

AI is integrated into compilers and makes code run faster

AI chatbots provide mental health support, boosting productivity

Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?

Apr 14, 7:22 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.36%chance

20496

OptionVotes

YES

1038

967

Google algorithm update causes 50% SERP volatility by November 15, 2025?

Aug 5, 10:00 PMNov 15, 9:59 PM

54.8%chance

2121

OptionVotes

YES

1101

908

Health AI News

Prediction markets for Health AI

Prediction markets for Health AI

Prediction markets for Health AI

When will PEPFAR funding be unfrozen?

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Will AI writers replace all jobs for human writers by the end of 2025?

Does drinking from plastic bottles actually cause negative health effects in humans by the best evidence in 2034?

Does wearing polyester clothing actually cause negative health effects in humans according to the best evidence in 2034?

Will AI take over most mental health therapy jobs by end of 2030?

Yann LeCun leaves Meta by mid 2027

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

What will AI's contribution to the economy look like in 2030?

Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?

Google algorithm update causes 50% SERP volatility by November 15, 2025?

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