Health AI News

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.67%chance

20440015

OptionVotes

YES

1208

828

More than 1000 cases of Irkutsk Plague?

Oct 4, 4:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.87%chance

9923160

OptionVotes

YES

5821

172

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1510936

OptionProbability

None

(0, 200]

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Apr 1, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.89%chance

324286

OptionVotes

YES

1764

715

Will AI take over most mental health therapy jobs by end of 2030?

Apr 21, 2:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.37%chance

362466

OptionVotes

YES

2209

692

Does drinking from plastic bottles actually cause negative health effects in humans by the best evidence in 2034?

Dec 5, 2:45 PMDec 5, 4:59 AM

74.3%chance

141260

OptionVotes

YES

1700

588

Does wearing polyester clothing actually cause negative health effects in humans according to the best evidence in 2034?

Dec 5, 3:29 AMDec 5, 4:59 AM

77.48%chance

121254

OptionVotes

YES

1855

539

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035?

Dec 4, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.42%chance

81237

OptionVotes

YES

1965

509

What will AI's contribution to the economy look like in 2030?

Oct 8, 6:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

19949

OptionProbability

AI produces highly-customized forms of entertainment

Other

AI is integrated into IDEs and provides suggestions to programmers

AI is used for drug discovery

Managers consult AI while making decisions

AI is integrated into compilers and makes code run faster

AI designs hardware for industrial processes

AI chatbots provide mental health support, boosting productivity

Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?

Apr 14, 7:22 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.53%chance

24587

OptionVotes

YES

1032

969

Any province legalizes psilocybin for recreational use?

Feb 1, 11:40 AMDec 17, 11:59 PM

9.62%chance

4145

OptionVotes

YES

1040

996

By end of 2030, will AI therapy-matching be the main intake path for new mental-health patients in a developed country?

Oct 12, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46%chance

339

OptionVotes

YES

120

Health AI News

Prediction markets for Health AI

Prediction markets for Health AI

Prediction markets for Health AI

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

More than 1000 cases of Irkutsk Plague?

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Will AI take over most mental health therapy jobs by end of 2030?

Does drinking from plastic bottles actually cause negative health effects in humans by the best evidence in 2034?

Does wearing polyester clothing actually cause negative health effects in humans according to the best evidence in 2034?

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035?

What will AI's contribution to the economy look like in 2030?

Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?

Any province legalizes psilocybin for recreational use?

By end of 2030, will AI therapy-matching be the main intake path for new mental-health patients in a developed country?

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