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Prediction markets for Health Benefits

Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?

Mar 17, 12:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.72%chance

266730

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

804

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.71%chance

156504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6529

2770

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Miami-Dade WASD ceases adding fluoride to its drinking water by 2027

Mar 11, 9:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.91%chance

3500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1302

768

Is the "radiation hormesis" hypothesis largely accurate?

Jul 5, 3:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.63%chance

18366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

912

General health benefits from cold showers, accepted by 2040?

Apr 14, 11:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.27%chance

15274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

994

Will a therapy that significantly slows or reversed the aging process in domestic animals be developed before 2030?

Apr 5, 4:57 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

68.31%chance

10252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

205

53

Will IGeL-Monitor.de evaluate another IGeL as "negative" by 2030?

Apr 27, 5:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

75.36%chance

8237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

113

Will I beat Emily in the 2023-2028 BMI War?

Apr 23, 9:44 PMApr 24, 6:59 AM

74.95%chance

6186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

191

59

Will GiveWell fund Community salt substitution by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.52%chance

8143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

171

Will any democratic nation implement a legal framework for compensating living organ donors by 2034?

Nov 8, 11:55 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

76.66%chance

4118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

179

103

Oral Semaglutide weight loss medication should be prescription free. Public health benefits outweigh side effects.

Feb 12, 10:37 AM

120

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