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Prediction markets for Health Benefits

Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?

Mar 17, 12:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.12%chance

276740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

814

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.71%chance

156504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6529

2770

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Miami-Dade WASD ceases adding fluoride to its drinking water by 2027

Mar 11, 9:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

59.92%chance

4550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1223

818

Is the "radiation hormesis" hypothesis largely accurate?

Jul 5, 3:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.16%chance

18376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1086

902

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

General health benefits from cold showers, accepted by 2040?

Apr 14, 11:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.27%chance

15274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

994

Will a therapy that significantly slows or reversed the aging process in domestic animals be developed before 2030?

Apr 5, 4:57 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

68.31%chance

10252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

205

53

Will I beat Emily in the 2023-2028 BMI War?

Apr 23, 9:44 PMApr 24, 6:59 AM

74.95%chance

6186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

191

59

Will GiveWell fund Community salt substitution by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.06%chance

9153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

167

Will GiveWell fund/recommend Ultra Poor Graduation initiatives before January 2028?

Jan 15, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.14%chance

490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

110

Oral Semaglutide weight loss medication should be prescription free. Public health benefits outweigh side effects.

Feb 12, 10:37 AM

120

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