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Prediction markets for Health
Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?
Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
49.08%chance
18928440
OptionVotes
1019
982
Will RFK Jr. be the Secretary Health and Human Services at the start of 2026?
Nov 14, 11:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
72.73%chance
6411439
OptionVotes
1633
612
Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.01%chance
175392
OptionVotes
9916
2845
Major revelation about Trump's health, negative, before 2026
Feb 8, 3:22 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM
59.4%chance
503389
OptionVotes
1097
815
Will I confidently think in 2026 that taking 120mg MDMA once every two months is less damaging to health than drinking two beers every night for 8 days in a row once every two months?
Dec 23, 7:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
55.13%chance
562229
OptionVotes
1366
705
Does drinking from plastic bottles actually cause negative health effects in humans by the best evidence in 2034?
Dec 5, 2:45 PMDec 5, 4:59 AM
74.3%chance
141260
OptionVotes
1700
588
Is it better for battery health to charge new M1 Macbooks via Magsafe rather than USB-C?
May 19, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
15.07%chance
211238
OptionVotes
1877
1353
Will AI take over most mental health therapy jobs by end of 2030?
Apr 21, 2:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
34.95%chance
321136
OptionVotes
1048
879
Will Trump having serious health troubles during his second term be revealed before 2031?
Jul 16, 2:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
59.87%chance
211112
OptionVotes
1221
819
Does 2000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?
Oct 21, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
78.53%chance
14792
OptionVotes
1118
952
General health benefits from cold showers, accepted by 2040?
Apr 14, 11:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
50.27%chance
15274
OptionVotes
1004
994
Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?
Oct 21, 5:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
67.44%chance
12174
OptionVotes
1000
993