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Prediction markets for Heavy Industries

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

79.49%chance

6116874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1969

508

Where will the "AI revolution" first take place?

Nov 6, 9:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23783

OptionProbability

United States

China

Other

Singapore

United Kingdom

India

European Union

Switzerland

Canada

South Korea

Japan

Israel

Australia

Russia

40

15

12

8

6

5

4

3

3

1

1

1

1

1

When will the next terminal launch of an orbital rocket that results in a fatality occur?

Mar 21, 4:56 AMMar 29, 3:59 AM

11661

OptionProbability

2027

Other

2026

2030

2028

2029

2025

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2024

12

11

10

10

9

9

8

6

6

5

5

5

4

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

Greenpeace to campaign against Kok river pollution by end of 2025

Jul 14, 2:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.52%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

91

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