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Prediction markets for Hedge Funds

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.46%chance

1620038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29132

4187

Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?

Feb 20, 11:48 PMJan 20, 11:47 PM

42.37%chance

252335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1166

857

AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions

May 1, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.82%chance

221268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

945

Will James Fishback win the Florida Republican Primary?

Mar 23, 12:27 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

12%chance

7973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Which multistrategy hedge fund (pod shop) will blow up by 2027 year end?

Oct 9, 12:53 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

490

OptionProbability

Other

Millennium

Citadel

Point72

Balyasny

None

53

10

10

10

10

8

Who Walmart buys eBay on 2029 only

Feb 10, 2:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will there be a Python implementation of the Open Game Engine (a Compositional Game Theory Model Checker) before 2028?

Apr 13, 12:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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