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Prediction markets for HEG

Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?

Jan 25, 1:15 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

20.86%chance

11820863

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1948

514

Hegseth, Patel, or RFK is out within the next 90 days

Apr 8, 9:43 AMJul 7, 9:42 AM

6.6%chance

4612892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3763

266

When will Pete Hegseth next be noticably drunk in public as Secretary of Defense?

Jan 29, 5:02 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

328498

OptionProbability

He will not be publicly drunk as Secretary of Defense

By the end of his tenure as Secretary of Defense

Before January 2027

Before April 2025

Before July 2025

Before October 2025

Before January 2026

69

28

19

0

0

0

0

If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?

Dec 5, 6:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.3%chance

403871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1244

964

Will Pete Hegseth go to prison?

Dec 21, 5:14 AMDec 21, 5:12 AM

133629

OptionProbability

Not before 31 December 2030

in 2030

in 2028

in 2029

in 2026

in 2027

75

9

6

6

2

2

Will Peter Hegseth be impeached during Trump's second presidential term?

Nov 30, 2:47 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

30.98%chance

272025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1493

670

Pete Hegseth's War Thunder account revealed before midterms?

Apr 27, 4:32 AMNov 4, 12:00 AM

7.35%chance

111046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

355

28

Will Pete Hegseth be the Secretary of War on 12/31/2026?

Mar 10, 7:42 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

71%chance

251008

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

64

Will Pete Hegseth write or say the words "Deus vult" while Secretary of Defence?

Jan 25, 1:40 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

25.85%chance

26783

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

59

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached by EOY 2027

Jan 14, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

10374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Who will lose his job first: Defense Secretary Hegseth or Defense Minister Dong?

Apr 22, 3:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12268

OptionProbability

Pete Hegseth

Dong Jun

75

25

Exit valuation of Hegel AI (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:38 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

390

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

72

11

11

6

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