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Prediction markets for HEG

Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?

Jan 25, 1:15 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

23.24%chance

11620535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1818

550

When will Pete Hegseth next be noticably drunk in public as Secretary of Defense?

Jan 29, 5:02 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

328498

OptionProbability

He will not be publicly drunk as Secretary of Defense

By the end of his tenure as Secretary of Defense

Before January 2027

Before April 2025

Before July 2025

Before October 2025

Before January 2026

69

28

19

0

0

0

0

If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?

Dec 5, 6:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.96%chance

393771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

957

Will Pete Hegseth go to prison?

Dec 21, 5:14 AMDec 21, 5:12 AM

133579

OptionProbability

Not before 31 December 2030

in 2030

in 2028

in 2029

in 2027

in 2026

81

7

5

5

2

1

Will Peter Hegseth be impeached during Trump's second presidential term?

Nov 30, 2:47 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

31.78%chance

241799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1465

683

Hegseth, Patel, or RFK is out within the next 90 days

Jan 8, 9:14 AMApr 8, 9:14 AM

8.28%chance

171394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

333

30

Pete Hegseth's War Thunder account revealed before midterms?

Apr 27, 4:32 AMNov 4, 12:00 AM

5.52%chance

101042

OptionVotes

YES

NO

414

24

Will Pete Hegseth write or say the words "Deus vult" while Secretary of Defence?

Jan 25, 1:40 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

23.83%chance

26773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Will Pete Hegseth be the Secretary of War on 12/31/2026?

Mar 10, 7:42 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

47.44%chance

19574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached by EOY 2027

Jan 14, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.41%chance

7355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

330

30

Who will lose his job first: Defense Secretary Hegseth or Defense Minister Dong?

Apr 22, 3:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12267

OptionProbability

Pete Hegseth

Dong Jun

75

25

Exit valuation of Hegel AI (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:38 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

390

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

72

11

11

6

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