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HELP News

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.57%chance

13343186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11734

11213

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.89%chance

3812608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19459

5139

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.24%chance

639302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1859

958

Will one person be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, with the help of AI, by EOY 2030?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

30.07%chance

383426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

656

Will GLP-1 agonists help stop or reverse the US obesity trend by end of 2027

Apr 29, 12:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

81.45%chance

332254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1725

697

AI "devops" #2: Will there be an AI that can help manage cloud infrastructure by 2030?

May 4, 9:06 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.28%chance

101893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

975

Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2037

Dec 22, 7:04 PMJun 30, 6:59 AM

46.38%chance

161699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

930

Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2028

Dec 22, 6:14 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

18.89%chance

161663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2072

483

Will Substack use LLMs to help you write posts???

Dec 1, 3:52 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

33.38%chance

10757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

708

Conditional on me reading GEB cover to cover, will I believe that reading this significantly helped my alignment thinking?

Jan 14, 9:22 AMMar 14, 10:59 PM

17%chance

17503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

958

I will help >20 people resolve chronic pain by December 31, 2025

Apr 15, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.86%chance

4301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1301

769

Will over 1,000,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28%chance

10201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

977

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