OptionVotes
YES
NO
2658
377
OptionProbability
Gunplay
On screen fatalities
Bond will be a man
Bond drives a car
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
London will appear on screen
World capital other than London appears on screen
Car chase scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Blue-eyed Bond
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Bond flys an aircraft
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Skydiving
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
Bond commits arson
Bond receives a gunshot wound
Oral sex
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
The title will refer to life and/or death
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond plays poker
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Wilhelm scream
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond is LQBTQ+
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Jetpack
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Bond rides an animal
Nazis (neo- counts)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Orgy
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
Mexico is shown on screen
Cryptocurrency is referenced
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
A hamburger appears on screen
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Bond goes to space
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
Pirates
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Bond plays Russian roulette
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Bond uses chopsticks
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
It will be directed by a woman
Bond dies
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
The fourth wall is broken
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond is vegan
Released in 2026
Bond hits the griddy
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OptionProbability
RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department
Flag desecration prohibition passed
Any vaccines banned for any group of people
J6er pardoned
Sports team invited to the white house
A member of Congress is censured or expelled
The democrats take control of the house of representatives
Significant Rogue AI Incident
Blue wave in 2026 midterm elections
Democrats win Iowa governorship
Republicans lose the house majority in midterms
James Talarico wins Texas senate election
Rob Sand wins 2026 Iowa governor election
Katie Hobbs win 2026 Arizona governor election
@DudleyDOODOO creates over 80 options for this market
Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults
Democrats win the early voting race game and win the midterms
Democracy survives
Generative AI becomes permanent part our daily lives permanently
Mass Deportations
Trump is impeached
A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch
Democrats win back the white house in 2028
Giorgia Meloni wins reelection prime minister
Left-wing CPAC alternative launches
RFK Jr impeached
Suffer a fall in public
Nicolas Maduro prosecuted and imprisoned for life
Chuck Grassley dies
Peter Hotez goes to prison
Convergence Magazine (Organizing Upgrade) shut down and cease to exist
@dudleyDOODO creates over 50 options that are either illogical, incomprehensible or too vague to resolve
Another project 2025 launched by Heritage Foundation for GOP 2029 presidency
All pseudo-legal sovereign citizen international tribunals causes all prediction markets as concept to defunct and cease to exist
Drone strike in Mexico by US
Nuclear weapon detonation
AGI achieved
US punitive expedition in Mexico
Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary
A second pope is elected
Republicans win the white house in 2028
Deep funding cuts to NIH, NSF, FDA, CDC, HHS, EPA fully implemented and becomes law
Democrats win trifecta in 2026 midterms
100k humanoid robots manufactured
All pseudo-legal sovereign citizen international tribunals causes all AI technologies and generative ai to defunct and cease to exist
Reiner Fuellmich released from prison
350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates
Another covid-like pandemic
NIH, CDC, FDA, HHS, NSF abolished permanently
Bell tower added at the US Capitol
Pauline Hanson becomes Australia prime minister
Reiner Fuellmich's Nuremberg 2.0 occurs and becomes reality
Science and public health infrastructures dies
All COVID-19 vaccines pulled off market entirely
Abolish vaccine funding entirely permanently
Zach Lahn wins Iowa 2026 governor election
Alice Weidel becomes German chancellor
Climate change infrastructures abolished permanently
MAGA and Trump challenge 2026 midterm GOP losses
A human walks on the Moon
Joe Exotic is released from prison
Nuremberg 2.0 over pandemics becomes reality and occurs
Patriots for Europe controls European parliament and wins majority
It ends with JD Vance becoming president
Antifa dissolves
Post-WW2 international orders die and abolished
AfD controls chancellorship and AfD becomes chancellor
Mark Carney wins 2029 Canada election
Vaccine research and projects permanently abolished
NASA abolished
US captures Daniel Ortega and all other leftist leaders worldwide
Europe of Sovereign Nations controls European parliament and wins majority
Measles vaccines abolished and pulled off market
Adam Schiff goes to prison
Chris Whitty goes to prison
European countries all under far-right regime control
Steve Bannon runs for 2028 president
Probabilistic forecasting dies, extinct, defunct, and cease to exist
Fauci and other scientist experts go to prison
Actblue shut down and cease to exist
All prediction markets defunct and cease to exist permanently
World war 3 and global war launch
Metaculus shut down and cease to exist
Room temperature superconductor discovered
Elon Musk is arrested for treason
China invades Taiwan
US military intervention on Canadian territory
Apple, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Perplexity defunct and cease to exist
Latin American countries all under far-right regime control
Ilhan Omar deported
Soros family goes to prison
Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason
Coup attempt in the United States
All in person comic con events get cancelled throughout 2020s
Republicans leads in early and mail in voting in midterms
Roberto Vannacci becomes Italy prime minister
Hillary Clinton goes to prison
All international NGOs defunct and cease to exist
Lula's 2026 Brazil election victory overturned and tilted to Bolsonaro
Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)
Republicans win control of the house
All type of vaccines abolished and pulled off market
Fauci goes to prison
Manifold market shut down and cease to exist
US withdraws from United Nations
Viktor Orban returns as prime minister
GOP, Trump, and MAGA controls all election infrastructures away from state governments
Russia invades all European countries
Barack Obama goes to prison
Nigel Farage becomes UK prime minister
Abolish global health funding and infrastructures
Abolish global vaccine funding and vaccine infrastructures permanently
Mass imprisonment of scientists, public health officials, pandemic officials and others worldwide
Far-right seizes all American universities nationwide
Global far-right alliances abolishes and defuncts generative AI and all AI technology
Global far-right alliances abolishes and defuncts all prediction markets
Anti-AI movement abolishes and defuncts all AI technologies and infrastructures
The Senate eliminates the filibuster
Largest solar flare since Carrington Event
Democracy dies
All left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations shut down
World Health Organization dissolved and abolished
Far-right seizes all American institutions
All US citizens arrested, detained, and targeted by ICE
Nuclear war
Reform UK wins UK 2029 election
World becomes global far-right regime
Russia invades all NATO countries
Bill Gates goes to prison
All media under right-wing control
North Korea bombs and invades South Korea
Elon Musk buys the 2026 midterm elections
US captures Lula and removes him from office
Supreme Court packing
22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms
Donald Trump reelected President
United States and the world becomes totalitarian dictatorship
All federal and state judges impeached
All Democrats imprisoned
Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China bombs US mainland
Rupert Lowe becomes UK prime minister
Human extinction
US buys Greenland and becomes 52nd state
Democrats permanently locked out of power
Democrats lose the house in 2026 midterm election
All scientists, doctors, pandemic experts, and all other public health officials go to prison
Eagles three-peat
2026 midterm election gets stolen by Trump and GOP and tilted in ruling party's favor
Abolish elections permanently
Russia invades all continents and controls the world globally
All Trump opponents go to prison
Canada becomes 51st state
Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran invades US mainland
Republicans win the early voting race game and win the midterms
Republicans surprisingly win the house in 2026 midterms
Abortion permanently banned nationwide and worldwide
End Russo-Ukranian war in 90 days
Red wave in 2026 midterm elections
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91
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0
OptionProbability
Under 65 yo
Under 60 yo
Straight
Has a STEM degree of any type
Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering
Is an American citizen
If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier
Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)
Under 55 yo
Speaks a foreign language
Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)
Has been a CEO
Is married
Under 50 yo
Has children
Self described person of color
Has ethnic Asian heritage
Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)
Software Engineering background
Was not an American citizen at birth
Went to a private high school
Is known to have a dog or cat, or to have had one in the past
Has a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)
Born in the cold season (oct-mar) in northern hemisphere or reverse if southern
Citation count on google scholar is 1k+
Has a github account which is known to be theirs (even w/out contributions)
Has an active and identifiable twitter/x account at least a year at the time their name leaks as the new CEO
Vegan or vegetarian (pescatarian, etc not included)
Signatory of CAIS AI risk statement
Has an acceptance or rejection from ycombinator in his/her history
Has attended Davos
Is publicly Atheist, agnostic, or a non-believer
Grey hair (now, even partial grey like Sundar counts)
Non-native English speaker
CEO will take office after Q2 2027
Born outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe
Is an only child
Born in the USA
Has ethnic European heritage
Diversity Points Score: 1
Has visited or lived in China
Has ever been divorced
Has PhD
Has a graduate or undergrad degree from any non US university
Has a nickname and is often addressed by it (example: Larry for Lawrence)
Under 45 yo
Has written and published a book either academic or non
Bald (Norwood Hamilton IV or more) in actual appearance at announcement
Has ethnic Native people (any continent) heritage
Has spent at least a month continuously in mainland China
Has submitted and received 2+ patents
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Friday
Diversity Points Score: 0
Under 40 yo
Has Jewish heritage
Neither parent attended college
Was a college-level athlete
Has any public mention of playing pickleball
Has at least 3 children
Is publicly Christian
Diversity Points Score: 2
Diversity Points Score: 5 or more
Blue eyes
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2015 or earlier
Diversity Points Score: 3
Diversity Points Score: 4
If man, taller than 6'1", if woman taller than 5'10" (us ~95th percentile)
Tattoo
Has served in us govt
Has passed a bar exam
Female
Born in the northeast
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Monday
Raised in a single parent family
Left-handed
Tattoo visible during inauguration speech
Grew up in poverty
Catholic
Physics Background
Green eyes
Is Hispanic
Both parents had PhDs
LGBT*+
Has military experience
Has worked or attended school in Israel
Is Muslim
Unnatural hair colour
Has ethnic African heritage
Has the same family name as a previous google/alphabet CEO
Has a physical disability
Has been to space
Has an ADOS background
Pronouns are not standard
Has a speech impediment
Trans
Is an AI
Has a Manifold account
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OptionProbability
Genetic care
Intentional Genetic Selection (IGS)
Non-steroid Athletic Augmentation (NAA)
Humanity Enhancement
Heritage Optimization
Conscious Genetic Elections (CGE)
Deliberate Allele Choice (DAC)
Guided evolution
Conception freedom
Choose your own Geneventure (CyoG)
Directed Elective Variation (DEV)
Hereditary Crafting
Voluntary Trait Selection (VTS)
Voluntary eugenics (many people will still oppose it as if it was involuntary, but no amount of branding can win them over)
Alleartistry (Alleart)
53
40
37
31
27
26
26
26
22
19
19
19
19
17
14
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1138
836
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1933
765
OptionProbability
2035 or earlier
2032 or earlier
2029 or earlier
2028 or earlier
2027 or earlier
2026 or earlier
47
42
24
14
10
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1927
790
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1795
922
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1783
561
OptionVotes
YES
NO
300
33
