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OptionProbability
US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility
Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)
UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution
Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem
Iranian General killed inside Iran
Donald Trump declares victory
Iranian government official declares victory
China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal
US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days
Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours
War ends in 2025
500+ Iranian civilians killed
US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year
Fordow facility successfully bombed
Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites
Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal
Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil
Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed
Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict
War Ends in June
Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA
Iran launches a cruise missile
Israel government dissolves
At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason
North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)
Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)
Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)
Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"
Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA
Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council
Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%
A second cease-fire is announced
Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz
Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel
A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank
USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution
Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours
Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.
Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran
Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar
WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)
>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict
>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict
Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours
USA conducts a second bombing in Iran
A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed
Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)
Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)
Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict
Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace
Iranian government dissolves
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz
Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon
Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%
Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day
Iran regime change
Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)
Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform
Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil
UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes
Saudi Arabia attacks Iran
Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed
Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally
Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026
There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.
Total casualties exceed 10,000
Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive
War ends in July
Iran tests a nuclear weapon
Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi
State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran
Qatar attacks Iran
≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict
US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)
Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025
A nuclear weapon is used offensively.
Ayatollah Khamenei Is already dead (June 26)
100
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100
93
92
77
66
64
56
49
44
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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Someone in the movie says the title
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The main theme song will be sung by a female
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
At least a portion filmed in Canada
A scene shows James Bond naked
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Death of a Bond love interest
Bond gets slapped
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Nazis (neo- counts)
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Bond wears a mask
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Canada is shown on screen
Sharks
Orgy
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A pinball machine will appear.
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Pirates
Assplay
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Bond plays Russian roulette
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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1
OptionProbability
Under 65 yo
Straight
Under 60 yo
Has a STEM degree of any type
Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier
Is an American citizen
If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)
Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)
Speaks a foreign language
Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)
Under 55 yo
Has been a CEO
Is married
Under 50 yo
Has children
Self described person of color
Has ethnic Asian heritage
Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)
Software Engineering background
Was not an American citizen at birth
Went to a private high school
Is known to have a dog or cat, or to have had one in the past
Has a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)
Born in the cold season (oct-mar) in northern hemisphere or reverse if southern
CEO will take office after Q2 2027
Citation count on google scholar is 1k+
Has an acceptance or rejection from ycombinator in his/her history
Has a github account which is known to be theirs (even w/out contributions)
Has an active and identifiable twitter/x account at least a year at the time their name leaks as the new CEO
Vegan or vegetarian (pescatarian, etc not included)
Has attended Davos
Is publicly Atheist, agnostic, or a non-believer
Grey hair (now, even partial grey like Sundar counts)
Non-native English speaker
Born outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe
Is an only child
Born in the USA
Has ethnic European heritage
Diversity Points Score: 1
Has ever been divorced
Has visited or lived in China
Has PhD
Has a graduate or undergrad degree from any non US university
Has a nickname and is often addressed by it (example: Larry for Lawrence)
Under 45 yo
Has written and published a book either academic or non
Bald (Norwood Hamilton IV or more) in actual appearance at announcement
Has ethnic Native people (any continent) heritage
Has spent at least a month continuously in mainland China
Has submitted and received 2+ patents
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Friday
Diversity Points Score: 0
Under 40 yo
Has Jewish heritage
Neither parent attended college
Was a college-level athlete
Has any public mention of playing pickleball
Has at least 3 children
Is publicly Christian
Diversity Points Score: 2
Diversity Points Score: 5 or more
Blue eyes
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2015 or earlier
Diversity Points Score: 3
Diversity Points Score: 4
If man, taller than 6'1", if woman taller than 5'10" (us ~95th percentile)
Tattoo
Has served in us govt
Has passed a bar exam
Female
Born in the northeast
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Monday
Raised in a single parent family
Left-handed
Tattoo visible during inauguration speech
Grew up in poverty
Catholic
Physics Background
Green eyes
Is Hispanic
Both parents had PhDs
LGBT*+
Has military experience
Has worked or attended school in Israel
Is Muslim
Unnatural hair colour
Has ethnic African heritage
Has the same family name as a previous google/alphabet CEO
Has a physical disability
Has been to space
Has an ADOS background
Pronouns are not standard
Has a speech impediment
Trans
Is an AI
Has a Manifold account
99
90
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87
84
84
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83
71
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65
62
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3
3
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Genetic care
Non-steroid Athletic Augmentation (NAA)
Intentional Genetic Selection (IGS)
Humanity Enhancement
Heritage Optimization
Guided evolution
Conscious Genetic Elections (CGE)
Deliberate Allele Choice (DAC)
Conception freedom
Directed Elective Variation (DEV)
Hereditary Crafting
Voluntary Trait Selection (VTS)
Choose your own Geneventure (CyoG)
Voluntary eugenics (many people will still oppose it as if it was involuntary, but no amount of branding can win them over)
Alleartistry (Alleart)
53
37
36
31
27
26
23
23
22
19
19
19
17
17
14
OptionProbability
Riverwatch A
Horace Mann A
Other
Middlesex A
Hunter A
River Trail A
Longfellow A
Churchill A
Meadows A
Heritage A
Oak Valley
Meyzeek A
Finan Homeschool
St. Mark's of Texas
T.H. Rogers
Emerson A
22
10
10
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1105
870
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1933
765
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1545
934
OptionProbability
2035 or earlier
2032 or earlier
2029 or earlier
2028 or earlier
2027 or earlier
2026 or earlier
73
63
40
30
18
4
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1027
981
OptionProbability
Weakened Democracy (Failed Authoritarianism)
Full Democratic Restoration
Hybrid Authoritarianism (Turkey)
Full Authoritarianism (Russia/NK)
Fractured Nation (states split into blocs)
42
31
16
7
3
OptionVotes
YES
NO
200
50