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Heritage News

    Prediction markets for Heritage

    Will Venezuelans be better off at the end of 2026?

    Jan 3, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    58.62%chance
    385193398

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1191

    841

    OptionProbability

    Bond will be a man

    Gunplay

    Bond drives a car

    Bond wears a suit/tuxedo

    On screen fatalities

    London will appear on screen

    Car chase scene

    Urban scene

    Bond tells ≥1 joke

    Blue-eyed Bond

    Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"

    World capital other than London appears on screen

    A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.

    A named character speaks in a language other than English

    Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.

    Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.

    Bond drinks a martini

    Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer

    Opening action sequence

    The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.

    Gun Barrel Sequence

    Sex scene

    Q appears

    Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently

    Hacking electronics of some form

    Bond uses explosives

    The plot will be predominantly set in present day

    Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts

    The main theme song will be sung by a female

    The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

    Fatal-if-missed aerial jump

    A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds

    Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.

    Asia will appear on screen

    It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)

    Someone goes through a pane of glass

    A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent

    "King" or "Queen" of England mentioned

    Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)

    Someone in the movie says the title

    @HenriThunberg enjoys the film

    It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die

    The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.

    >= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release

    The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.

    Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall

    South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen

    The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.

    Bond rides a motorcycle

    >=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release

    Critics will say it's a return to classic bond

    A sniper rifle is fired

    At least a portion filmed in Canada

    There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting

    Bond wields a Walther PPK

    Interracial sex scene

    Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)

    Jungle / forest scene

    Bond flys an aircraft

    James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government

    Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.

    Casino game scene

    Bond parachutes

    It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)

    Bond wears shorts

    Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present

    >=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release

    Arctic scene

    Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing

    Bond gets slapped

    M will be played by Ralph Fiennes

    Prison/jail scene

    Black market trafficking

    A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it

    Someone climbs around on the outside of a building

    Released in 2028

    Skydiving

    The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.

    A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)

    Bond licks something

    Bond and a pond shown on screen together

    someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)

    Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)

    Bond slaps someone

    A scene shows James Bond naked

    Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth

    Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)

    Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.

    There will be a voiced character that is an AI

    Bond rides a bicycle

    Torture

    James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.

    Bond receives a gunshot wound

    A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens

    Wilhelm scream

    Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)

    The title will refer to life and/or death

    @brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand

    Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack

    Bond drives a boat

    A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne

    Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)

    James Bond plays poker

    Bond commits arson

    Oral sex

    Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar

    Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen

    Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time

    Bond has facial hair

    Terrorists

    US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)

    Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case

    A safe is cracked (any means possible)

    Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen

    Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)

    Desert scene

    The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)

    A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot

    Ski chase scene

    Drug use

    Someone/something is x-rayed

    Thunderstorm

    Dessert scene

    An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)

    President of the United States is mentioned

    IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...

    Robots

    Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail

    Death of a Bond love interest

    It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)

    Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick

    Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)

    There will be a promotional event in Fortnite

    Bond wears a mask

    Sharks

    Cocaine or caviar appears on screen

    Bond will be in a submarine

    James Bond plays baccarat

    Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses

    Cryptocurrency is referenced

    Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage

    Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet

    Bond is LQBTQ+

    Bond rides an animal

    James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't

    Main villain speaks Russian on screen

    Bond has a disability

    Nazis (neo- counts)

    Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage

    Mexico is shown on screen

    Jetpack

    The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)

    An EMP device plays a central role.

    Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned

    At least one named character below 18 years old

    Orgy

    Canada is shown on screen

    Will feature something that can turn invisible

    A hamburger appears on screen

    Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen

    Underwater combat

    Bond goes to space

    The word "fuck" is said more than once.

    With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖

    Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)

    Bond is blond

    Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone

    Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)

    Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift

    A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)

    Assplay

    Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)

    Bond plays Russian roulette

    Bond uses a VR headset

    Bond has a neck tattoo

    Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond

    The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.

    Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.

    fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name

    A pinball machine will appear.

    Gay sex scene

    Pirates

    Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene

    Emilia Clarke portrays a character

    A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"

    Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)

    Theme song is performed by The Weeknd

    San Francisco is shown on screen

    Pegging

    Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)

    Horse cock on screen (flaccid)

    Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine

    Satanism

    Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz

    A clocks shows the time 4:20

    It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.

    Feature Nightcore music

    Supernatural entities

    There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American

    ChatGPT is referenced by any character

    Bond uses chopsticks

    Released in 2026

    Nuclear explosion

    Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)

    Any character says the word "anime"

    Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)

    Vampires

    Bond vapes

    Bond won't be Caucasian

    The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.

    Bond dies

    Scat play

    Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)

    Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme

    Horse cock on screen (erect)

    Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.

    Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).

    The handkerchief code is a major plot element

    James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."

    Bond is vegan

    The fourth wall is broken

    It will be directed by a woman

    Bond plays League of Legends

    Destiny appears on screen

    Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”

    Dragons

    Dinosaurs

    It will be directed by Christopher Nolan

    Bond hits the griddy

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    OptionProbability

    Under 65 yo

    Straight

    Under 60 yo

    Has a STEM degree of any type

    Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering

    Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier

    Is an American citizen

    If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)

    Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)

    Speaks a foreign language

    Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)

    Under 55 yo

    Has been a CEO

    Is married

    Under 50 yo

    Has children

    Self described person of color

    Has ethnic Asian heritage

    Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)

    Software Engineering background

    Was not an American citizen at birth

    Went to a private high school

    Is known to have a dog or cat, or to have had one in the past

    Has a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)

    Born in the cold season (oct-mar) in northern hemisphere or reverse if southern

    Citation count on google scholar is 1k+

    Has a github account which is known to be theirs (even w/out contributions)

    Has an active and identifiable twitter/x account at least a year at the time their name leaks as the new CEO

    Vegan or vegetarian (pescatarian, etc not included)

    Signatory of CAIS AI risk statement

    Has an acceptance or rejection from ycombinator in his/her history

    Has attended Davos

    Is publicly Atheist, agnostic, or a non-believer

    Grey hair (now, even partial grey like Sundar counts)

    Non-native English speaker

    CEO will take office after Q2 2027

    Born outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe

    Is an only child

    Born in the USA

    Has ethnic European heritage

    Diversity Points Score: 1

    Has visited or lived in China

    Has ever been divorced

    Has PhD

    Has a graduate or undergrad degree from any non US university

    Has a nickname and is often addressed by it (example: Larry for Lawrence)

    Under 45 yo

    Has written and published a book either academic or non

    Bald (Norwood Hamilton IV or more) in actual appearance at announcement

    Has ethnic Native people (any continent) heritage

    Has spent at least a month continuously in mainland China

    Has submitted and received 2+ patents

    Announcement of the appoint happens on a Friday

    Diversity Points Score: 0

    Under 40 yo

    Has Jewish heritage

    Neither parent attended college

    Was a college-level athlete

    Has any public mention of playing pickleball

    Has at least 3 children

    Is publicly Christian

    Diversity Points Score: 2

    Diversity Points Score: 5 or more

    Blue eyes

    Has a Wikipedia page created in 2015 or earlier

    Diversity Points Score: 3

    Diversity Points Score: 4

    If man, taller than 6'1", if woman taller than 5'10" (us ~95th percentile)

    Tattoo

    Has served in us govt

    Has passed a bar exam

    Female

    Born in the northeast

    Announcement of the appoint happens on a Monday

    Raised in a single parent family

    Left-handed

    Tattoo visible during inauguration speech

    Grew up in poverty

    Catholic

    Physics Background

    Green eyes

    Is Hispanic

    Both parents had PhDs

    LGBT*+

    Has military experience

    Has worked or attended school in Israel

    Is Muslim

    Unnatural hair colour

    Has ethnic African heritage

    Has the same family name as a previous google/alphabet CEO

    Has a physical disability

    Has been to space

    Has an ADOS background

    Pronouns are not standard

    Has a speech impediment

    Trans

    Is an AI

    Has a Manifold account

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    Who Will Win 2026 MSNCT?

    May 13, 7:50 PMMay 10, 10:59 PM
    157166

    OptionProbability

    Riverwatch A

    St. Mark's of Texas

    T.H. Rogers

    Other

    River Trail A

    Meadows A

    Horace Mann A

    Heritage A

    Middlesex A

    Hunter A

    Longfellow A

    Churchill A

    Oak Valley

    Meyzeek A

    Finan Homeschool

    Emerson A

    46

    16

    7

    6

    5

    5

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    2035 or earlier

    2032 or earlier

    2029 or earlier

    2028 or earlier

    2027 or earlier

    2026 or earlier

    October 2025 or earlier

    84

    76

    53

    43

    20

    8

    0

    OptionProbability

    Genetic care

    Non-steroid Athletic Augmentation (NAA)

    Intentional Genetic Selection (IGS)

    Humanity Enhancement

    Heritage Optimization

    Guided evolution

    Conscious Genetic Elections (CGE)

    Deliberate Allele Choice (DAC)

    Conception freedom

    Directed Elective Variation (DEV)

    Hereditary Crafting

    Voluntary Trait Selection (VTS)

    Choose your own Geneventure (CyoG)

    Voluntary eugenics (many people will still oppose it as if it was involuntary, but no amount of branding can win them over)

    Alleartistry (Alleart)

    53

    37

    36

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    26

    23

    23

    22

    19

    19

    19

    17

    17

    14

    Will the US have an Asian president by 2041?

    Sep 11, 8:33 AMDec 19, 4:59 AM
    48.03%chance
    271744

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1105

    870

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1933

    765

    Will there still be at least three Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

    May 8, 12:08 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
    95.51%chance
    131007

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1795

    922

    Will there still be at least nine Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

    May 8, 12:07 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
    75.32%chance
    11201

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1027

    981

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1178

    849

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