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Prediction markets for Heurist

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

283938

OptionProbability

Cryptomania

Minicrypt

Heuristica

Pessiland

Algorithmica

75

8

7

7

3

"Shangri-La diet" theory becomes widely accepted by scientists before 2030.

Nov 30, 9:36 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

8.78%chance

193924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

945

Will Portland have fully self-driving taxis by the end of 2025?

Dec 16, 12:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.85%chance

453123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3073

571

Efficient full homomorphic encryption for frontier model training by 2030?

Dec 19, 1:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10.88%chance

192878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

894

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

83.36%chance

21941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

944

Will the problem of heuristic arguments still be an open problem by 2026?

Nov 22, 4:38 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

73.99%chance

15481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1289

824

What is the best way to make forward progress in theoretical physics?

May 20, 10:57 AMMay 11, 1:59 PM

9284

OptionProbability

Twistor theory

Some other approach

String theory

General work on quantum field theories

Loop quantum gravity

Application of fisher information to physics

No progress is possible

43

27

24

3

1

1

1

Does any organization, as of 6 May, 2023, have the capability to engage in practical time-travel?

May 8, 1:46 PMMay 9, 3:59 AM

6.5%chance

6230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

400

124

Peter Wildeford’s plan for human freedom and prosperity post AGI: more like a detailed plan or a set of frameworks?

Feb 23, 9:55 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

2150

OptionProbability

Set of frameworks and heuristics

Detailed plan

57

43

Will "OthelloGPT learned a bag of heuristics" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 9, 7:05 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will ARC's Heuristic Arguments research substantially advance AI alignment before 2027?

Sep 15, 1:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

103

Will "Formal verification, heuristic explanations a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 11:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.72%chance

217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

951

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