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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.77%chance

433111801577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26182

17789

Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]

Nov 18, 4:29 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

3.8%chance

4301342179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

503441

19890

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10701123447

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2049-2050

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2028-2029

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2026-2027

2027-2028

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2024-2025

2025-2026

10

8

7

7

6

6

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

0

0

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

16298985

OptionProbability

1,750 - 1,899

1,600 - 1,749

1,900 - 2,049

1,450 - 1,599

2,050 - 2,199

1,300 - 1,449

2,200 - 2,349

1 - 999

1,150 - 1,299

1,000 - 1,149

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

39

27

15

7

5

3

2

1

1

0

0

0

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55%chance

21950798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2545

1107

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.62%chance

10248316

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1539

1185

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

7129622

OptionProbability

Second half 2028

First half 2028

Second half 2027

First half 2027

Second half 2026

First half 2026

Second half 2025

First half 2023

Second half 2023

First half 2024

Second half 2024

First half 2025

41

40

38

30

15

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will Trump significantly expand high-skill immigration by the end of 2026?

Nov 6, 7:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.99%chance

6027644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2211

452

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.01%chance

9322087

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

955

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

72.63%chance

5412013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

614

During Trump's presidency, which types of unemployment will reach new highs?

Nov 9, 7:59 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

1111688

OptionProbability

U-1

U-2

U-4

U-5

U-3

27

24

24

24

15

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Jan 3, 3:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

6410958

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1166

856

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