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High News

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27%chance

413211111333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29240

16529

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10651096066

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2049-2050

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2028-2029

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2027-2028

2047-2048

2048-2049

2026-2027

2024-2025

2025-2026

7

7

6

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

0

0

Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]

Nov 18, 4:29 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

10.66%chance

71269525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

289541

34537

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

15196616

OptionProbability

1,750 - 1,899

1,600 - 1,749

1,450 - 1,599

1,900 - 2,049

1,300 - 1,449

2,050 - 2,199

2,200 - 2,349

1 - 999

1,000 - 1,149

1,150 - 1,299

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

56

15

9

7

4

3

3

1

1

1

0

0

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

52.47%chance

21149369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2614

1027

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

22%chance

10248166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1560

1107

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

7129622

OptionProbability

Second half 2028

First half 2028

Second half 2027

First half 2027

Second half 2026

First half 2026

Second half 2025

First half 2023

Second half 2023

First half 2024

Second half 2024

First half 2025

41

40

38

30

15

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will Trump significantly expand high-skill immigration by the end of 2026?

Nov 6, 7:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.99%chance

6027644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2211

452

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57%chance

9121404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

817

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

79.33%chance

5211897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1959

510

During Trump's presidency, which types of unemployment will reach new highs?

Nov 9, 7:59 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

1010338

OptionProbability

U-1

U-3

U-2

U-4

U-5

27

26

24

24

24

In 2025, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt?

Mar 2, 7:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.14%chance

545740

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2270

891

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