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Prediction markets for High Courts

Will SCOTUS strike down the preemptive pardons if it considers the case?

Jan 20, 2:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20%chance

3814920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18124

6187

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

19.06%chance

1211095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18607

6485

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

If asked, will the German Constitutional Court decide to ban the AfD?

Jan 20, 9:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.89%chance

433297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

775

How many deputies will Partido Missão elect to Brazil's Chamber of Deputies in the 2026 general election?

Nov 24, 6:11 PMOct 5, 11:59 PM

81184

OptionProbability

0-4 deputies

5-8 deputies

13+ deputies

9-12 deputies

49

21

16

15

Kurdistan will become a state in 2029

Jan 18, 3:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.18%chance

11941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

46

New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori

Mar 21, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.68%chance

6855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1747

572

Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty for the shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson

Feb 5, 5:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.86%chance

15546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

521

30

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

32.89%chance

6421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

When will a humanoid robot beat a human tennis pro in a singles match

Mar 16, 5:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

160

OptionProbability

Before 2045

Before 2040

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2035

Before 2028

Before 2027

76

66

50

50

50

34

24

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

Mar 12, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

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