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Prediction markets for High Courts

Will SCOTUS strike down the preemptive pardons if it considers the case?

Jan 20, 2:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20%chance

3814920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18124

6187

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

19.06%chance

1211095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18607

6485

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

If asked, will the German Constitutional Court decide to ban the AfD?

Jan 20, 9:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.91%chance

453627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

974

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Oct 17, 10:23 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

113151

OptionProbability

Ingria

Chechnya (Ichkeria)

Zaporozhye (Zaporizhzhia) Oblast

Kaliningrad (Königsberg)

Bashkortostan

Tatarstan

Udmurtia

Chuvashia

Sakha (Yakutia)

Karelia

Dagestan

Buryatia

34

16

15

10

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

Will Platner, El-Sayed, and Talarico all win their Senate seats?

Jun 5, 2:37 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

24.3%chance

162415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3459

1202

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

May 25, 8:51 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

11.02%chance

111566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1753

147

New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori

Mar 21, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

81263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Who will join STF (Brazil's Supreme Court) in their lifetime?

Mar 28, 2:10 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4980

OptionProbability

Bruno Dantas

Vera Lúcia Santana Araújo

Conrado Hübner Mendes

Jorge Messias

Silvio Almeida

18

15

10

7

1

Will Ketanji Brown Jackson rule in favor of Virginia's redistricting

May 9, 1:20 AMJan 1, 2:19 AM

79.63%chance

5465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1435

857

Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?

Jun 21, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

3112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

Mar 12, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

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