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Prediction markets for High Jump

Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2030?

May 30, 8:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.38%chance

54593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5479

1093

Will Euphoria season 3 premiere before Zendaya turns 29? (September 1st, 2025)

Mar 25, 8:51 PMOct 3, 6:59 AM

8.18%chance

132707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3374

352

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Sep 30, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

311871

OptionProbability

2030-2049

2027-2029

2025-2026

2023-2024

39

38

20

3

When will Manifold repeat this Sam Altman CEO market mistake?

Mar 17, 5:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81157

OptionProbability

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2027

Before 2028

Before 2026

Before H2 2024

Before 2025

88

85

82

69

69

42

0

0

Sudden jump in AI long-horizon capabilities (1-4 hr version)

Aug 19, 5:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

64.6%chance

6484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

740

Will there be a sane right wing frontier model by 2028?

Jul 9, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40%chance

6336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will fewer than 950,000 boys play 11-man tackle football in high school during the 2028 season?

Jan 1, 3:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

68%chance

233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

93

54

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