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Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

77.79%chance

255750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

534

Has anyone from the Epstein files who communicated with him directly (or Epstein himself) engaged in cannibalism?

Feb 15, 6:30 AMDec 31, 6:29 AM

19.3%chance

455119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

489

Conditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028?

Jul 4, 4:35 AMNov 8, 5:59 AM

8%chance

274793

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1710

879

Has anyone from the Epstein files who communicated with him directly (or Epstein himself) engaged in vampirism?

Feb 15, 7:05 AMDec 31, 6:59 AM

21.1%chance

182577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1933

517

During President Trumps present term.Do you think he may have a medical episode, making him incapable to finish his term

Feb 21, 7:58 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

38.67%chance

181762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

794

Will an ex-lover of Elon Musk embroil him in a public sex scandal before the end of 2028?

Mar 15, 12:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.66%chance

231395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

943

Will Drake win at least $1 in damages from UMG for calling him a pedophile by the end of 2026?

Jan 15, 3:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.8%chance

91044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

Will the player selected #1 overall in the 2023 NFL draft sign a contract extension with the team who draft him?

Mar 11, 11:08 PMAug 11, 10:59 PM

42.3%chance

12623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

876

Is most of Mathieu van der Poel's road cycling success still ahead of him as of October 2023?

Oct 24, 6:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71.78%chance

10372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

80

Contingent on Trump winning the election, will any of the DAs or judges currently trying him go to jail?

Feb 23, 1:11 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

17.99%chance

10222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

957

Musk alive and humans have been to mars or him not alive and they haven't, due mid 2045

Aug 23, 8:23 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

54.94%chance

3145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

906

By 2040, will Shakespeare's Wikipedia page say it's likely Thomas North authored at least one play attributed to him?

Sep 9, 4:44 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15%chance

6140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

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