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Top stories

Massachusetts Biotech Funding Drops 17% as NIH Cuts Loom

Authors

10

11 months ago

Prediction markets for Hiring

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6151768

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

Pat Scott @Stralor

@retr0id

@8my41

@vi

@Bandors

@Quroe

@Eternal

@Cy

@astroblob

@zhengkyl

@AlirezaAfshan

@Celene

@AtharvPatil

50

31

28

26

25

21

20

15

14

13

13

11

10

8

Was the January 29, 2025 mid-air collision caused by a DEI hire?

Jan 30, 1:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.94%chance

5710827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1484

43

Will "Lightcone is hiring a generalist, a designer,..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 19, 9:04 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

4.04%chance

52200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3200

827

Will Amazon fully acquire, acqui‑hire, or own ≥ 50 % of Anthropic before 2029

Jun 10, 10:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.73%chance

162115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3045

328

Will I hire mercenaries to install me as dictator of of some small tropical island?

Jul 3, 3:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.89%chance

121144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1689

944

Will any "DEI hire" pilot on a US airline make a mistake that results in at least one other person's death before 2028?

Jan 15, 7:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.4%chance

15415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

114

Will we hire additional transactions team staff within 5 years?

Apr 5, 4:40 PMApr 5, 11:59 PM

14.65%chance

3117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

41

Will "How to Hire a Team" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 31, 3:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.93%chance

282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

987

Will a major AI-related CEO or AI researcher be revealed to hire a food/microplastic taster for them by EOY 2028?

Feb 3, 8:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.98%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

77

Will roon have to hire bodyguards by EOY 2029?

Feb 18, 5:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.31%chance

448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

71

Will Yann LeCun hire bodyguards by 2030

Feb 11, 6:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.34%chance

231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99

82

Will Austin Shao be hired for Atomic Semi (https://atomicsemi.com/ ) before 2027?

Mar 26, 1:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.64%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

70

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