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Prediction markets for History

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8519498

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

January 6th

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

Bitcoin

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Violent repression of women in Iran

New York v Trump 2024

Russia's takeover of the US political establishment

Tigray War

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

98

97

88

82

82

82

78

75

63

63

62

57

54

53

51

40

21

13

Will Trump pardon more people during his second term than any president during a single term in history?

Nov 28, 5:04 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

40%chance

18972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

368

90

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.83%chance

10525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

780

At the end of the 2020s, will Manifold think it was the most important decade in human history?

Sep 5, 12:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10251

OptionProbability

No

Yes

68

30

Fewest number of years in the 21st century with intellectual progress greater than of all prior history?

Jan 2, 8:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.07%chance

8251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

151

Britons' pride in British history increases by 2026?

Aug 12, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

7203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

Will the breakthrough(s) mentioned in the OpenAI board letter go to history as a pivotal step on the path to AGI?

Nov 23, 11:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

56.44%chance

7132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

81

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Will the automated decipherment of enciphered historical manuscripts change history?

Apr 8, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.76%chance

245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

45

Will the AI alignment slack's entire history stop being accessible (eg if its paid plan on slack is discontinued by 2029

Mar 12, 4:12 AMMar 20, 3:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

111

Will AI analyze a convo history I have with someone to figure out exactly why someone distanced from you by EOY2026

Jan 9, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.44%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

Will "To Understand History, Keep Former Population..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 11:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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