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History News

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8215250

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

January 6th

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Bitcoin

Violent repression of women in Iran

New York v Trump 2024

Tigray War

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

97

94

88

86

82

82

77

75

63

61

61

57

54

51

40

21

13

Will I regularly post on my history blog through 2025?

Jul 5, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.35%chance

63879

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10274

9734

Will Trump pardon more people during his second term than any president during a single term in history?

Nov 28, 5:04 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

38.39%chance

18952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

375

85

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.2%chance

9515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1272

786

Is Candace Owens lying about her student loans being over 6 figures and/or misrepresenting her family financial history?

Mar 10, 6:24 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

90.51%chance

14496

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1380

901

Will I win the 2025 "National Middle East History Competition"?

Jul 16, 7:01 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

39.68%chance

6384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

811

Fewest number of years in the 21st century with intellectual progress greater than of all prior history?

Jan 2, 8:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.07%chance

8251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

151

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Will "Advice for Activists from the History of Envi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 29, 7:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13%chance

277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

988

Will the automated decipherment of enciphered historical manuscripts change history?

Apr 8, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.76%chance

245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

45

Will the AI alignment slack's entire history stop being accessible (eg if its paid plan on slack is discontinued by 2029

Mar 12, 4:12 AMMar 20, 3:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

111

Will "To Understand History, Keep Former Population..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 11:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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