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Prediction markets for History

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8519316

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

January 6th

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Bitcoin

Violent repression of women in Iran

New York v Trump 2024

Tigray War

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

98

97

88

86

82

82

78

75

63

61

61

57

54

51

40

21

13

Will there be a massive global financial crisis, larger than any before seen in human history, before the end of 2028?

Jul 31, 10:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.48%chance

141420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

423

127

Will Trump pardon more people during his second term than any president during a single term in history?

Nov 28, 5:04 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

40%chance

18972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

368

90

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.83%chance

10525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

780

Is Candace Owens lying about her student loans being over 6 figures and/or misrepresenting her family financial history?

Mar 10, 6:24 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

90.51%chance

14496

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1380

901

At the end of the 2020s, will Manifold think it was the most important decade in human history?

Sep 5, 12:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10251

OptionProbability

No

Yes

68

30

Britons' pride in British history increases by 2026?

Aug 12, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

7193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Will "Advice for Activists from the History of Envi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 29, 7:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13%chance

277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

988

Will the automated decipherment of enciphered historical manuscripts change history?

Apr 8, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.76%chance

245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

45

Will AI analyze a convo history I have with someone to figure out exactly why someone distanced from you by EOY2026

Jan 9, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.44%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

Will "To Understand History, Keep Former Population..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 11:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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