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Top stories

Loop Capital Cuts Shopify to Hold on Valuation; KeyBanc Lifts Target

Authors

5

12 days ago

Prediction markets for Hold from Buy

Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29

Nov 18, 5:55 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM

20.01%chance

410012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15091

101

Will the US acquire new territory during Trump’s second term?

Dec 24, 11:52 PMJan 21, 6:59 AM

14.31%chance

559781

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2447

409

Will I manage to achieve a sub-45 min 10k before @diadematus and 2026?

Jan 21, 7:40 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

80.34%chance

84691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2022

495

Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?

Jan 16, 5:09 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

13.59%chance

143292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2522

397

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

50.5%chance

442809

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

868

Can anyone beat me in the Pokemon Monotype Gauntlet? [Rock vs Fire round]

Jan 16, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.56%chance

11494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1706

586

Will Elon Musk's investment in Twitter beat the NASDAQ?

Nov 20, 8:16 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

19.12%chance

251442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1616

756

Will Elon get margin called on the loans he took against his Tesla holdings to buy Twitter?

Mar 29, 12:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.08%chance

16673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

283

35

If Manifold adds the ability to place stop orders, will the people who asked for them regret it within a month?

Nov 5, 4:02 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

43.95%chance

15544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1263

725

Robo-Palanquin - human-carrying robot available by mid 2034

May 21, 8:44 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

47.95%chance

5350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

960

Will a physics competition for high school students be hosted at MIT by mid 2026?

Jul 24, 12:43 PMJul 1, 3:59 PM

47.03%chance

6130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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