Hold from Reduce News

1 year ago

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

15.97%chance

5010404

OptionVotes

YES

1767

784

Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?

Jan 16, 5:09 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

13.4%chance

153312

OptionVotes

YES

2542

393

Will the UK Government reduce its current Bitcoin holdings before the next general election?

Dec 3, 2:59 PMJul 4, 10:59 PM

34.32%chance

5508

OptionVotes

YES

1383

723

When Will Bill Gates Net Worth Be Less Than 6% of Elon Per Forbes

Mar 15, 5:46 PMMar 15, 5:41 PM

6492

OptionProbability

2029 or later

By Dec 31 2027

By Dec 31 2028

by dec 31 2026

Will the Chinese Yuan be among the top 3 global payments currencies before 2030?

Apr 30, 11:27 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

37.75%chance

13442

OptionVotes

YES

109

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

10170

OptionProbability

Partial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028

No - Yemen is unified under single internationally recognized government by EOY 2028

Yes - Multiple independent states emerge (South Arabia, Houthi state, others) by EOY 2028

Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026

Feb 2, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.14%chance

9159

OptionVotes

YES

212

Will the Gulf Railway be completed by 2030?

Aug 15, 5:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

27.49%chance

7130

OptionVotes

YES

213

145

Will David Chalmers publicly endorse physicalism about consciousness by 2030?

Nov 5, 4:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.51%chance

7114

OptionVotes

YES

242

101

If Manifold forces balances to be used to increase the liquidity of all competitive markets, is that a good thing?

Feb 11, 6:55 AM

120

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

Oct 16, 1:57 AM

Liu-Gu Contention

Feb 24, 12:41 AM

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Prediction markets for Hold from Reduce

Prediction markets for Hold from Reduce

Prediction markets for Hold from Reduce

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?

Will the UK Government reduce its current Bitcoin holdings before the next general election?

When Will Bill Gates Net Worth Be Less Than 6% of Elon Per Forbes

Will the Chinese Yuan be among the top 3 global payments currencies before 2030?

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026

Will the Gulf Railway be completed by 2030?

Will David Chalmers publicly endorse physicalism about consciousness by 2030?

If Manifold forces balances to be used to increase the liquidity of all competitive markets, is that a good thing?

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

Liu-Gu Contention

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