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Prediction markets for Hold to Buy

Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29

Nov 18, 5:55 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM

21.15%chance

920640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15064

108

Will the US acquire new territory during Trump’s second term?

Dec 24, 11:52 PMJan 21, 6:59 AM

23.64%chance

569933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1849

573

Nguyen Ba Stock

Apr 11, 9:35 AM

133696

OptionProbability

NO

YES

459

432

Will Elon Musk's investment in Twitter beat the NASDAQ?

Nov 20, 8:16 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

16.76%chance

263596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1798

716

Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?

Jan 16, 5:09 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

13.4%chance

153312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2542

393

Will an AI be able to beat me in Pokemon?

Aug 5, 2:16 PMAug 5, 1:38 PM

24.04%chance

132863

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1777

563

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

53.02%chance

442859

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

821

High Class or Low Class? - Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "High Class" in 2026? (add answers)

Jan 16, 9:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

131498

OptionProbability

Skiing

Going to Horse Races

Sailing

Mountains

Tennis

Snowboarding

Having more than 5 kids

Captcha

Using generative AI

Appearing on the JRE podcast

Environmental activists

Christmas lights up after the New Year

Using Food Delivery Apps

Prediction markets

Hunting

Starbucks

Caring about whether a certain behavior is high class or low class

90

90

89

88

88

61

60

60

59

56

53

44

41

41

38

35

31

Will Elon get margin called on the loans he took against his Tesla holdings to buy Twitter?

Mar 29, 12:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

16826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

436

23

Robo-Palanquin - human-carrying robot available by mid 2034

May 21, 8:44 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

47.95%chance

5350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

960

Polymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?

Nov 20, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.09%chance

4145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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