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Prediction markets for Hold to Buy

Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29

Nov 18, 5:55 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM

21.15%chance

920640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15064

108

Will the US acquire new territory during Trump’s second term?

Dec 24, 11:52 PMJan 21, 6:59 AM

18%chance

5710919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2196

482

Will Elon Musk's investment in Twitter beat the NASDAQ?

Nov 20, 8:16 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

14.07%chance

263860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2062

669

Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?

Jan 16, 5:09 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

13.4%chance

153312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2542

393

Will an AI be able to beat me in Pokemon?

Aug 5, 2:16 PMAug 5, 1:38 PM

24.04%chance

132863

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1777

563

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

53.02%chance

442859

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

821

Flowers Stock (permanent)

Aug 21, 5:58 PM

52273

OptionProbability

NO

YES

143

70

Will Elon get margin called on the loans he took against his Tesla holdings to buy Twitter?

Mar 29, 12:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

16826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

436

23

Robo-Palanquin - human-carrying robot available by mid 2034

May 21, 8:44 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

47.95%chance

5350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

960

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ...?

Feb 2, 1:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5280

OptionProbability

Q4 2026 (October 1 - December 31, 2026)

Q3 2026 (July 1 - September 30, 2026)

Q2 2026 (April 1 - June 30, 2026)

Q1 2026 (by March 31, 2026)

40

35

21

5

Polymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?

Nov 20, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.71%chance

5262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

79

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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