OptionProbability
Loki face reveal
Shanks backstory with Garling involved
Other holy knights beside Garling face reveal (at least one)
Dragon finally makes a move
Usopp powerup (haki or new weapon)
Man marked by flames is revealed
Luffy finds out that the Bartolomeo Pirates were destroyed by Shanks's crew
Imu face reveal
Vivi rejoins the crew
Kidd washes up on the shore and is seen in the arc
Cross guild arrives on Elbaf
Big Mom returns (must be present in-person)
Shanks's crew do a davy back fight with the strawhats
100
100
100
79
77
69
64
34
30
12
11
9
7
OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Do a second rise
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Make banana bread
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Add garlic
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
put ketchup and cheese on it
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Add slurs to it
Brush on an egg wash
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Make the bread taste good
Bake for 15 more minutes
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Taste the bread
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Use a convection oven/setting
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Make the bread great again
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Increase water by 50 g
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Replace salt with sugar
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Strawberry jelly filling
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Add caffeine to the bread
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
it needs more salt
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Use lemonade instead of water.
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
89
85
80
78
78
78
77
73
72
71
69
69
68
67
67
66
62
62
62
59
58
57
57
56
55
55
53
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
45
43
43
42
41
41
41
40
39
37
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
33
31
31
31
30
29
28
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
20
20
19
18
18
17
16
15
15
14
14
14
13
13
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Shanks is the only holy knight (past member or current member) from the Red-Haired Pirates
Other
No, they are not the holy knights nor do they have any affiliation (besides Garling)
Someone else from the Red-haired Pirates besides Shanks was a past member or is a current member of the holy knights
Yes, the Red-Haired Pirates ARE the holy knights
57
32
4
4
3
OptionProbability
Title of the movie is "Dune: Part Three"
Announced in 2024
Music composed by Hans Zimmer
One or more characters who died in the first two films are cloned/appear in the film as clones (or gholas)
Paul Atreides sits on a throne
Rated PG-13
Denis Villeneuve credited as Producer, Director, and Writer
IMDB rating over 8.1 one week after release
Guild Navigator shown (not fully obscured by suit or tank)
Thinking machines directly referenced ("artificial intelligence", "machine in the likeness of a human mind", etc. counts as yes)
3 or more sand worms are on screen simultaneously
Released in 2026
Mentat does an eye-flick calculation
At least one birth depicted on screen
Runtime over 2h 45m
At least three characters who died in the first two movies are depicted on-screen (can be flashback, spice dream, etc)
5 or more sand worms are on screen simultaneously
A named character will be cast as a different gender to their book gender (other than ones who appeared in previous movies eg Liet Kynes)
Runtime between 2h 30m and 2h 45m inclusive
Alia depicted on-screen as a toddler (not infant and obviously <6yo)
Hitler mentioned by name
Runtime under 2h 30m
The word "jihad" (not "holy war" or similar) is used
"Butlerian jihad" mentioned by name
”Messiah” is in the movie title
An actor for a named character is replaced by a different actor
Not released by EoY 2030
100
100
97
96
96
93
92
92
87
85
84
81
80
74
65
57
53
33
31
23
14
12
8
8
6
5
4
OptionProbability
Bougainville
Somaliland
Other
Kosovo
Sovereign State of the Bektashi Order
Aden (under any name such as South Yemen)
Kurdistan
East African Federation
Palestine
Taiwan
Greenland
Scotland
Catalonia
Holy See / Vatican City
Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic
Transnistria
31
18
16
7
5
5
4
4
3
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Revolutionary Army
Both
Black Beard Pirates
A separate Faction
77
18
5
0
OptionProbability
NO
YES
379
46
OptionProbability
Other
First half of 2026
Second half of 2026
First half of 2024
Second half of 2024
First half of 2025
Second half of 2025
69
19
9
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
142
74
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1103
907
OptionProbability
NO
YES
120
71
OptionProbability
NO
YES
79
32
