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Prediction markets for Holistic

Will Trump significantly expand high-skill immigration by the end of 2026?

Nov 6, 7:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.99%chance

6027644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2211

452

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.25%chance

18894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

922

Will the World Tension Index get above 100 in 2026?

Dec 31, 6:41 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

47%chance

7210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Taiwan-China Potential Conflict: which of these will happen first, before 2029? #1

Jan 23, 7:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

10190

OptionProbability

None

Invasion of Taiwan

Law enforcement-led quarantine of Taiwan

PLA-led blockade of Taiwan

58

18

12

11

Conditions for Second Coming of Christ better in 2030 than 2024?

Mar 24, 5:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.01%chance

673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

85

How will competing views of AI identity (instance, weights, persona) be relatively favored by researchers in 2030?

Mar 23, 9:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

Weights

Instance

Persona

37

32

32

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the LiveCodeBench leaderboard?

Jul 13, 8:49 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

125

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

21

19

15

9

9

9

9

9

Will "METR Research Update: Algorithmic vs. Holisti..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 28, 10:49 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.97%chance

224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

1000

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