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Prediction markets for HON

AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?

Oct 13, 3:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

44.39%chance

468096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1356

394

Hong Kong to change its HK$ peg away from USD by end of 2026?

Aug 3, 7:21 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

10.53%chance

364786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5803

804

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

46.38%chance

43051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10753

9300

AI honesty #3: by 2027 will we have interpretability tools for detecting when an AI is being deceptive?

Oct 13, 3:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.39%chance

201749

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1371

465

Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

47.7%chance

31550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10471

9550

Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?

Jan 22, 12:54 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

65.83%chance

24897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

1089

Will Alex Honnold live to the age of 50?

Aug 31, 7:02 PMAug 17, 10:59 PM

70.42%chance

22813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

954

By 2027 will there be a language model that passes a redteam test for honesty?

Oct 12, 5:59 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

27%chance

14643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

955

Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?

Aug 21, 1:28 PMDec 31, 2:21 PM

59.21%chance

8485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

830

AI honesty #2: by 2027 will we have a reasonable outer alignment procedure for training honest AI?

Oct 13, 3:55 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.22%chance

14465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

939

Will My 2002 Honda Accord Break Down Within 1 Year Of Purchase?

Mar 17, 7:28 PMMar 17, 7:26 PM

42.67%chance

7242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1159

863

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