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Top stories

Warren Buffett to Reveal $5 Billion Stake in Mystery Industrial Stock Amid SEC Filing Deadline and Speculation on IBM and Bitcoin Strategy

Warren Buffett to Reveal $5 Billion Stake in Mystery Industrial Stock Amid SEC Filing Deadline and Speculation on IBM and Bitcoin Strategy

Authors

8

2 days ago

Prediction markets for HON

AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?

Oct 13, 3:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40.28%chance

437374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1418

349

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

44.86%chance

372816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

846

Who will be the next Archbishop of Canterbury?

Sep 5, 8:07 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

122320

OptionProbability

Rt Rev Dr Guli Francis‐Dehqani, Bishop of Chelmsford

Rt Rev Martyn Snow, Bishop of Leicester

Rt Rev & Rt Hon Dame Sarah Mullally DBE, Bishop of London

Rt Rev Rose Hudson‐Wilkin CD MBE KHC, Bishop of Dover

Other

Rt Rev Graham Usher, Bishop of Norwich

Rt Rev Dr Jane Mainwaring, Bishop of Hertford

46

17

13

8

8

5

3

¿Partido ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de Honduras en 2025? / Winning party of Honduras' 2025 pres. election?

Nov 29, 11:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91640

OptionProbability

Partido Liberal

Libertad y Refundación

Partido Nacional

Otro / Other

38

36

36

3

Hong Kong to change its HK$ peg away from USD by end of 2026?

Aug 3, 7:21 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

33.82%chance

321606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2623

1579

AI honesty #3: by 2027 will we have interpretability tools for detecting when an AI is being deceptive?

Oct 13, 3:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

47.78%chance

171484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

591

Will Singapore's 2024 birth rate, as a percentage of Hong Kong's 2024 birth rate, increase by at least 3% versus the same comparison in 2023?

Feb 15, 1:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.77%chance

231219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1661

499

Alex Honnold fails to climb safely through 2035

Jun 6, 11:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.07%chance

19819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

920

By 2027 will there be a language model that passes a redteam test for honesty?

Oct 12, 5:59 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

27%chance

14643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

955

AI honesty #2: by 2027 will we have a reasonable outer alignment procedure for training honest AI?

Oct 13, 3:55 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.4%chance

13415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

955

AI honesty #4: by 2027, will we have AI that would tell us if it was planning on destroying us (conditional on that being true)?

Oct 13, 4:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.3%chance

14342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

910

Will Alex Honnold live to the age of 50?

Aug 31, 7:02 PMAug 17, 10:59 PM

69.14%chance

14310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

973

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