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Honey News

🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]

Feb 24, 7:07 PMSep 28, 3:59 AM

297297513

OptionProbability

Adolf Hitler

George Santos

Benito Mussolini

Vladimir Putin

Joseph Stalin

Kanye West

Kim Jong-un

Derek Chauvin

Xi Jinping

Jeffrey Epstein

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Dan Schneider

David Duke

Tucker Carlson

Mao Zedong

Viktor Orbán

Genghis Khan

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Thanos

Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars

Dolores Umbridge

Nero (Roman emperor)

Bill Cipher

Curtis Yarvin

Nick Land

Shaun King

Caligula

King Leopold II of Belgium

Negan Smith

Alex Jones

Augusto Pinochet

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

A paperclip-maximizing AGI

Lauren Boebert

Pennywise, the clown from “It”

Vlad the Impaler

Saddam Hussein

Commodus

Cthulhu

Hirohito

Lucifer, the King of Hell / Satan

Joffrey Baratheon

Sauron

Hong Xiuquan

SCP-682

Uday Hussein

Nicolas Maduro

Jabba the Hutt

Kyle Rittenhouse

Lee Harvey Oswald

Robert Edward Lee

Pol Pot

The Master / Harry Saxon (from Doctor Who)

Anders Breivik

Voldemort

Chris Benoit

Rush Limbaugh

Gannondorf

Bobby Fischer

Charles Manson

The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II

Jair Bolsonaro

Drake

Hugo Chavez

Chris Chan

Phillipe Petain

A random convicted murderer

A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well

Andrew Tate

Dylan Klebold

A severe case of ulcerative colitis

A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president

Donald Trump

Kang and/or Kodos

Satan

Josh Hawley

A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants

Albert Speer

Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi

Steve Bannon

Cersei Lannister

A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life

Ron Unz

Ivan the terrible

Otto Skorzeny

Karl Donitz

Trump's attempted assassin

Christoper Rufo

John Hinckley Jr.

The Loc-Nar

The Grim Reaper

Charles "Chuck" Johnson

Pat Buchanan

A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"

Whatifalthist

Franz von Papen

A virulently antisemitic but otherwise well-meaning person

Erich von Manstein

Nikita Khrushchev

Judas Iscariot

Lyndon LaRouche

Joseph McCarthy

The CEO of MALIBAL

Erich Ludendorff

Mark Foley

Andronikos II Palaiologos

Liu Shan

Roko

Alana "Honey Boo Boo" Thompson

Godzilla

Hasan Piker / Hasanabi

Unabomber

Jozef Tiso

Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho

Thomas Midgley Jr.

Alfred Packer

Brent Dill

Steve Sailer

Erwin Rommel

Gongsun Yuan

Hasso von Manteuffel

King John

EMIL OLE WILLIAM KIRKEGAARD

qin shi huang

Shang Yang

Richard Lynn

James Longstreet

A cockroach

Niko Bellic

Commodus

Tito

an asi agent from openai

The exhumed corpse of George Washington (rather than alive during his prime), with a sign around his neck at all times reading 'slave owner' in red lettering

Vriska Serket

Miklos Horthy

Franz Joseph 1

WILLY ON WHEELS

J. Philippe Rushton

Lu Bu

Yuan Shikai

Yuan Shu

Juan Peron

Connor Duffy

Faust

Paul Von Hindenburg

Charles XII of Sweden

Zhou Enlai

Samuel Alito

@StochasticParrot (Stochastic Cockatoo)

Marlo Stanfield (The Wire)

Darkstalker (Wings of Fire)

Hunter Biden's laptop

Giego Caleiro

Fredrick Robert Brennan

Jeremy Nixon

Charles Murray

Paul Ehrlich

Michael de Santa

anatoly karlin

Jonathan Anomaly

Alexey Guzey

Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope (as co-presidents)

Yuan Shao

Jar Jar Binks

JD Vance

Karl Marx

Peter Thiel

Liang Mong-song

Lucy Guo

A randomly chosen child (<13) who does not speak English and who has never been to North or Central America

Stephen Hsu

James Buchanan

Mehmed V

Klaus Schwab

Sean Hannity

Rochelle Shen

Black Hat (XKCD)

King George III of England

Ada Nguyen

James Dewey Watson

Laura Gao

Claire Wang

@ButtocksCocktoasten

Jiang Zemin

Any child of Trump (randomly selected)

Salvador Allende

Rorschach

Wario

A literal ham sandwich

goth600

Petyr Baelish / Littlefinger

Elagabalus

Biden, but as a worm (i.e., Would you still vote for Biden if he was a worm?)

A well meaning person with severe short term memory issues causing them to wake up every day not realizing that they are the President

Light Yagami

Neville Chamberlain

Rod Blagojevich

Brian Chau (@psychosort)

Emperor Ling of Han

Chris Brown

Richard Watterson (from Gumball)

Tronald Dump, his counterpart in the Mirror Universe

Hans Niemann

Silvio Berlusconi

Timothy Leary

John Edwards

Lex Luthor

George Floyd

Hunter Biden

Razib Khan

Kim Dotcom

Waluigi

Bad Bunny

Deng Xiaoping

Empress Dowager Cixi

A prostitute from the alleged Trump pee tape

A randomly picked Muslim citizen of the US

Brian Tomasik

Your mom

Eren Yeager

THEAMAZINGATHEIST

Richard Hanania

A random citizen of slightly below average intelligence who drinks 1 beer a day and has no high school diploma

Chuck Norris

You (Are you really willing to take on the responsibilities of the presidency yourself to avoid giving them to Trump?)

Ray Shaun Elussy

Lucille Bluth

Michael Vassar

An automated veto stamp (vetoes everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)

Kristi Noem's dog

Moses (Bible)

Yourself right now

Elizabeth Holmes

Eminem

Stan Smith

A random citizen of average intelligence who drinks three beers a day and has a highschool diploma

Justin Trudeau

Futarchy (Manifold users)

Nicky Case

Santa Claus

Robespierre

Yourself from 15 years ago

Greta Thunberg

@strutheo :)

Their child, who has become a juggalo, a furry, and a brony

Bill Gates

Gavin Newsom

Hillary Clinton

Walter White

Chat GPT

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Destiny

George Soros

Bill Cosby

Ellen DeGeneres

Harvey Weinstein

Kamala Harris

Ron DeSantis

A can of beans

George W. Bush

Richard Nixon

Jeremy Corbyn

Joe Biden

Julius Caesar

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Benjamin Netanyahu

Yasser Arafat

Shinzo Abe

Gus Fring

Frank Underwood

Mr Burns

Mr Krabs

Peter Griffin

Homer Simpson

Hank Hill

Cruella De Vil

Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear Rising)

Ibram X. Kendi

Rachel Dolezal

Nayib Bukele

Ayn Rand

Barack Obama

Young Sheldon

Tony Soprano

Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)

Dr Robotnik / Eggman

Vivek Ramaswamy

Taylor Swift

Joe Rogan

Javier Milei

Emmanuel Macron

Doctor Manhattan

Bill Clinton

Donkey Kong

Rudy Giuliani

An autopen (signs everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)

Sam Bankman-Fried

Cedric the Entertainer

Glenn Quagmire

Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist)

Gollum/Smeagol

Matthew Yglesias

Vaush

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas

Donald Trump Jr

Napoleon Bonaparte

Jordan Peterson

Scar (lion king)

Margaret Thatcher

Andrew Johnson

Bill Ackman

Bernie Madoff

Jussie Smollet

Avon Barksdale

Yann Lecun

The nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party

Elon Musk

Paul Atreides

Cenk Uygur

Georgia Meloni

Boris Johnson

Trump from the 80s-90s

Shirley Temple

Mark Rutte

Michael Jackson

James (manifold)

Austin (manifold)

George Washington

Zaphod Beeblebrox

Mr Garrison (South Park)

Lee Pace

Muhammad the prophet

Jose Luis Ricon

BasedBeffJezos

Mike Pence

Nate Silver

Shai-Hulud (sandworms from Dune)

Confucius

hari seldon

Teddy Roosevelt

Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Angela Merkel

Jacinda Ardern

shaq

elvis

random manifold user

abe lincoln

bruce springsteen

billy joel

Rishi Sunak

Scott Alexander's Presidential Platform https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform

buddha

satoshi nakamoto

A citizen of above average intelligence with a college degree, but the Secret Service will stop at nothing to ensure they are crossfaded (drunk + high) at all times

100

Where will we honeymoon? (Subsidized! Reward for new answers!)

Sep 5, 8:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3021547

OptionProbability

Other

Muskogee, Oklahoma

No honeymoon occurs

New Zealand

Portugal

Costa Rica

Spain

Mexico

Seychelles

Australia

Hawaii

Mauritius

Iceland

India

Staten Island, New York

The United Kingdom

The Bahamas

Sequoia National Park (and surrounding parks)

France

Belgium

California

Austria

Å, Lofoten, Norway

Italy

Japan

South Korea

Thailand

Brazil

Ireland

Trans-Siberian Railway

Mount Rainier national park

Greece

Las Vegas, Nevada

Amsterdam

Bali

Maldives

Fiji

Yellowstone National Park

Nice, France

Budapest

Prague

Banff, Canada

Phuket

Chiang Mai

Samui

Krabi

Rovinj, Croatia

North Korea

Antarctica

Sealand

What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [FREE RESPONSE]

Oct 9, 8:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

6114004

OptionProbability

A person has a moral right to own a gun

We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

Other

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

Being a billionaire is morally wrong

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

Music is a net negative for humanity

Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

It is not possible to multitask

Abortion is morally wrong

jskf's password is ***************

The first American moon landing was faked

There is no Dog

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Cars should not have sound systems

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Pet ownership is morally wrong

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

Cascadia should be an independent country

Children should not be raised in nuclear families

The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

Tech bros are really, really annoying

Capitalism has done far more harm than good

Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

California is wildly overrated.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

The next American moon landing will be faked

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

Cars are a societal net negative

Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.

Which 2025 romance anime TV show will have the highest score on AniList?

Aug 5, 7:56 PMFeb 1, 6:59 AM

136674

OptionProbability

The Fragrant Flower Blooms With Dignity

Rascal Does Not Dream of Santa Claus

DAN DA DAN Season 2

Other

My Dress-Up Darling 2nd Season

The 100 Girlfriends Who Really, Really, Really, Really, Really Love You 2nd Season

Rent-A-Girlfriend 4th Season

Honey Lemon Soda

My Happy Marriage Season 2

Who will be officially announced as a competitor on "Dancing with the Stars" (US) before July 1, 2028?

Aug 20, 9:38 PMJun 30, 7:57 PM

63791

OptionProbability

Elle King

Zach King

Dixie D'Amelio

Katy Perry

Jools Lebron

Lil Nas X

Emma Chamberlain

Justine Bateman

Noah Cyrus

Nikki Blonsky from the movie "Hairspray"

Raven Simone

Denise Richards

Camille Grammar

Scheana Shay

Charlie Sheen

Jinx Monsoon

Walton Goggins

Mike White

Sarah Silverman

Beanie Feldstein

Paris Hilton

Nicole Richie

Anthony Weiner

Dita Von Teese

Kelly Ripa

Sutton Stracke

Jennifer Tilly

Jessica Gunning

Cris Judd

Alana Frances Thompson (aka Honey Boo-Boo)

Adam Lambert

David Beckham

Parvati Shallow

Joey Graziadei

Prince Harry

Daniel Stern

Owen Wilson

Luke Wilson

Mel Gibson

Mira Sorvino

Sharon Stone

Woody Harrelson

Billy Bob Thornton

James Woods

Greg Kinnear

Geena Davis

Danielle Brooks

Nancy Mace

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Tom Sandoval

Luann de Lesseps

Meg Tilly

Linda Evangelista

Marc Maron

Jason Bateman

Tina Fey

James Charles

Todd Chrisley

Julie Chrisley

Drew Barrymore

Savannah Chrisley

Jeanette McCurdy

Meghan Markle

Bowen Yang

Lynne Spears

Jussie Smollett

Andrea Martin

Catherine O'Hara

Bette Midler

Lady Gaga

Adam DeVine

Victoria Beckham

Pitbull

Ronan Farrow

Soon-Yi Previn

Jodie Foster

Ted Cruz

Steve Carell

Dolly Parton

Andy Cohen

Christina Hendricks

Eric Trump

Donald Trump Jr.

Tiffany Trump

Jean Smart

Drake Bell

Suze Orman

Noah Schnapp

Ann Coulter

Harry Sisson

Elon Musk

Michael Rapaport

Monica Lewinsky

Gypsy-Rose Blanchard

Jon Lovett

Mia Farrow

Kevin Spacey

Ariana Grande

Jeanine Pirro

Jesse Watters

Richard Gere

Kanye West

RuPaul

Cole Escola

Donald Trump

Hasan Piker

Rachel Maddow

Joe Rogan

Sarah Palin

Sarah Palin - DUPLICATE DO NOT BET

JD Vance

Roger Stone

James Carville

Ivanka Trump

Donna Brazile

Prince William

Hillary Clinton

Woody Allen

Roseanne Barr

George Santos

Joe Biden

Which of these movie franchises with 3 entries will get a 4th released before Jan 1st 2028?

Jan 19, 5:09 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

211478

OptionProbability

Beverly Hills Cop

Kingsman

Trolls (Dreamworks)

Austin Powers

Human Centipede

Re-Animator

Blade

Cars (Disney)

Riddick

Guardians of the Galaxy

Bill and Ted

Hostel

Rush Hour

Big Momma's (House)

Cabin Fever

Cloverfield

Charlie's Angels

Creepshow

Daddy Day Care

Unbreakable / M Night Shyamalan's Eastrail 117 Trilogy

Meet the Parents / Fockers

My Big Fat Greek Wedding

Sharktopus

Zeitgeist (Documentary)

Honey I Shrunk the Kids

Fifty Shades

Free Willy

Mighty Ducks

Oh, God!

Ace Ventura

Back to the Future

Godfather

Bloodrayne

100

Honey

Jul 14, 10:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3797

OptionProbability

Down

What will be true about the upcoming video game Anno 117: Pax Romana and its future DLCs [add responses]

Jun 15, 6:19 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11612

OptionProbability

sea warfare

marble as a good

land warfare

Colosseum can be build

region inspired by Greece

Volcano Disaster

some buildings can be buffed with items

some ships can be buffed with items

region inspired by Egypt

purpura/purple as a good

players can build different temples that give bonus modifiers

land trade routes

sewage system

pottery as a good

salt as a good

water can be distributed with aqueducts

slaves as a population tier

silk as a good

interactive trading system inspired by the Silk Road

Hadrian's Wall can be build

region inspired by Persia

a NPC or Item is named Jorgensen

barbarians as enemies (for the combat system)

siege engines (for the combat system)

glassware as a good

honey as a good

furniture as a good

region inspired by Germania

diagonal building grid

available on steam within the first 12 months after release

Will the Honey add on still be available at the end of 2026?

Dec 23, 5:25 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

85.71%chance

9171

OptionVotes

YES

245

Wild Honey Bees functionally extinct in the USA by 2030?

Jul 8, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.14%chance

9129

OptionVotes

YES

145

Will Brent Honeywell Jr. pitch at least one inning in the MLB in the 2025 regular season?

Mar 27, 1:53 PMOct 9, 11:59 PM

43.05%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

115

Will the Canadian government put someone on trial for killing Barry and Honey Sherman before 2030? (see desc.)

Feb 25, 7:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.81%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

118

116