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Honey News

🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]

Feb 24, 7:07 PMDec 28, 4:59 AM

302298071

OptionProbability

Adolf Hitler

George Santos

Benito Mussolini

Vladimir Putin

Joseph Stalin

Kanye West

Kim Jong-un

Derek Chauvin

Xi Jinping

Jeffrey Epstein

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Dan Schneider

David Duke

Tucker Carlson

Mao Zedong

Viktor Orbán

Genghis Khan

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Thanos

Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars

Dolores Umbridge

Nero (Roman emperor)

Bill Cipher

Curtis Yarvin

Nick Land

Shaun King

Caligula

King Leopold II of Belgium

Negan Smith

Alex Jones

Augusto Pinochet

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

A paperclip-maximizing AGI

Lauren Boebert

Pennywise, the clown from “It”

Vlad the Impaler

Saddam Hussein

Commodus

Cthulhu

Hirohito

Lucifer, the King of Hell / Satan

Joffrey Baratheon

Sauron

Hong Xiuquan

SCP-682

Uday Hussein

Nicolas Maduro

Jabba the Hutt

Kyle Rittenhouse

Lee Harvey Oswald

Robert Edward Lee

Pol Pot

The Master / Harry Saxon (from Doctor Who)

Anders Breivik

Voldemort

Chris Benoit

Rush Limbaugh

Gannondorf

Bobby Fischer

Charles Manson

The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II

Jair Bolsonaro

Drake

Hugo Chavez

Chris Chan

Phillipe Petain

A random convicted murderer

Andrew Tate

A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well

Cersei Lannister

Dylan Klebold

Trump's attempted assassin

A severe case of ulcerative colitis

A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president

Donald Trump

Kang and/or Kodos

Satan

A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants

Albert Speer

Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi

Steve Bannon

Josh Hawley

A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life

Ron Unz

Ivan the terrible

Otto Skorzeny

Karl Donitz

Christoper Rufo

John Hinckley Jr.

The Loc-Nar

The Grim Reaper

Charles "Chuck" Johnson

Pat Buchanan

A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"

Whatifalthist

Franz von Papen

A virulently antisemitic but otherwise well-meaning person

Erich von Manstein

Nikita Khrushchev

Judas Iscariot

Lyndon LaRouche

Joseph McCarthy

The CEO of MALIBAL

Erich Ludendorff

Roko

Mark Foley

Andronikos II Palaiologos

Liu Shan

Alana "Honey Boo Boo" Thompson

Godzilla

Hasan Piker / Hasanabi

Unabomber

Sima Zhong

LEROY JENKINS

CHELSEA VOSS

Laria Reynolds

Ornlu the Wolf

Jozef Tiso

Marlo Stanfield (The Wire)

A cockroach

Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho

Alfred Packer

Hu Jintao

Brent Dill

Steve Sailer

Erwin Rommel

Gongsun Yuan

Hasso von Manteuffel

King John

EMIL OLE WILLIAM KIRKEGAARD

qin shi huang

Shang Yang

Richard Lynn

James Longstreet

Niko Bellic

Hunter Biden's laptop

The exhumed corpse of George Washington (rather than alive during his prime), with a sign around his neck at all times reading 'slave owner' in red lettering

Commodus

Paul Von Hindenburg

Tito

Thomas Midgley Jr.

an asi agent from openai

Vriska Serket

Yuan Shu

Miklos Horthy

Franz Joseph 1

WILLY ON WHEELS

J. Philippe Rushton

Lu Bu

Yuan Shikai

Juan Peron

Connor Duffy

Faust

Charles XII of Sweden

Zhou Enlai

Samuel Alito

@StochasticParrot (Stochastic Cockatoo)

Darkstalker (Wings of Fire)

Giego Caleiro

Fredrick Robert Brennan

Mehmed V

Black Hat (XKCD)

Jeremy Nixon

Charles Murray

Paul Ehrlich

Michael de Santa

anatoly karlin

Jonathan Anomaly

Alexey Guzey

King George III of England

Yuan Shao

Jar Jar Binks

Peter Thiel

Liang Mong-song

Lucy Guo

Klaus Schwab

Karl Marx

Stephen Hsu

James Buchanan

A literal ham sandwich

A randomly chosen child (<13) who does not speak English and who has never been to North or Central America

Rochelle Shen

JD Vance

Emperor Ling of Han

Ada Nguyen

Sean Hannity

Tronald Dump, his counterpart in the Mirror Universe

Salvador Allende

James Dewey Watson

Laura Gao

Claire Wang

Eren Yeager

@ButtocksCocktoasten

Jiang Zemin

Rorschach

Wario

goth600

Any child of Trump (randomly selected)

Petyr Baelish / Littlefinger

Elagabalus

Lex Luthor

A well meaning person with severe short term memory issues causing them to wake up every day not realizing that they are the President

Light Yagami

A prostitute from the alleged Trump pee tape

Neville Chamberlain

Bad Bunny

Rod Blagojevich

Brian Chau (@psychosort)

Chris Brown

Richard Watterson (from Gumball)

Hans Niemann

Silvio Berlusconi

Timothy Leary

John Edwards

George Floyd

Hunter Biden

Razib Khan

Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope (as co-presidents)

A randomly picked Muslim citizen of the US

Biden, but as a worm (i.e., Would you still vote for Biden if he was a worm?)

Kim Dotcom

Waluigi

Deng Xiaoping

Empress Dowager Cixi

Brian Tomasik

Your mom

THEAMAZINGATHEIST

Richard Hanania

A random citizen of slightly below average intelligence who drinks 1 beer a day and has no high school diploma

Chuck Norris

You (Are you really willing to take on the responsibilities of the presidency yourself to avoid giving them to Trump?)

Stan Smith

Ray Shaun Elussy

Lucille Bluth

Michael Vassar

An automated veto stamp (vetoes everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)

Santa Claus

Kristi Noem's dog

Moses (Bible)

Yourself right now

Justin Trudeau

Elizabeth Holmes

Eminem

A random citizen of average intelligence who drinks three beers a day and has a highschool diploma

Futarchy (Manifold users)

Nicky Case

Robespierre

Yourself from 15 years ago

Greta Thunberg

Their child, who has become a juggalo, a furry, and a brony

@strutheo :)

Bill Gates

Gavin Newsom

Hillary Clinton

Walter White

Chat GPT

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Destiny

George Soros

Bill Cosby

Ellen DeGeneres

Harvey Weinstein

Kamala Harris

Ron DeSantis

A can of beans

George W. Bush

Richard Nixon

Jeremy Corbyn

Joe Biden

Julius Caesar

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Benjamin Netanyahu

Yasser Arafat

Shinzo Abe

Gus Fring

Frank Underwood

Mr Burns

Mr Krabs

Peter Griffin

Homer Simpson

Hank Hill

Cruella De Vil

Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear Rising)

Ibram X. Kendi

Rachel Dolezal

Nayib Bukele

Ayn Rand

Barack Obama

Young Sheldon

Tony Soprano

Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)

Dr Robotnik / Eggman

Vivek Ramaswamy

Taylor Swift

Joe Rogan

Javier Milei

Emmanuel Macron

Doctor Manhattan

Bill Clinton

Donkey Kong

Rudy Giuliani

An autopen (signs everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)

Sam Bankman-Fried

Cedric the Entertainer

Glenn Quagmire

Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist)

Gollum/Smeagol

Matthew Yglesias

Vaush

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas

Donald Trump Jr

Napoleon Bonaparte

Jordan Peterson

Scar (lion king)

Margaret Thatcher

Andrew Johnson

Bill Ackman

Bernie Madoff

Jussie Smollet

Avon Barksdale

Yann Lecun

The nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party

Elon Musk

Paul Atreides

Cenk Uygur

Georgia Meloni

Boris Johnson

Trump from the 80s-90s

Shirley Temple

Mark Rutte

Michael Jackson

James (manifold)

Austin (manifold)

George Washington

Zaphod Beeblebrox

Mr Garrison (South Park)

Lee Pace

Muhammad the prophet

Jose Luis Ricon

BasedBeffJezos

Mike Pence

Nate Silver

Shai-Hulud (sandworms from Dune)

Confucius

hari seldon

Teddy Roosevelt

Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Angela Merkel

Jacinda Ardern

shaq

elvis

random manifold user

abe lincoln

bruce springsteen

billy joel

Rishi Sunak

Scott Alexander's Presidential Platform https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform

buddha

satoshi nakamoto

A citizen of above average intelligence with a college degree, but the Secret Service will stop at nothing to ensure they are crossfaded (drunk + high) at all times

100

What is the Best Animal (Strength, Intelligence, Likability)

Dec 3, 3:19 AMDec 17, 4:01 AM

259141808

OptionProbability

Elephant (African Savanna Elephant specifically)

Orca

Wooly mammoth

Orangutan

Sperm whale

Dog

Chimpanzees

Bonobo

🦖 (Tyrannosaurus Rex)

Hamsters

Cat (cute housecat)

Cockatoo

Great Blue Whale

Shark

Otter

Ant

Bottlenose Dolphin

Octopus

Rhinoceros

Raven

A kitten is a juvenile cat

White, intelligent rat

Kea

Emperor Penguin

Seal

Proboscis Monkey

Honey Badger

Gorilla

Dragon

Panda

The Robot Dog is used to replace warfighters, workers and military

Cthulhu *Extinct animals are eligible

[Duplicated] Orcinus orca dolphin (Māki)

The humble sea sponge

Humpback Whale

Polar Bear

[Ineligible] Human

Lion

[Ineligible] Homo erectus

Ichthyotitan

Wolf

Boobies

Pig

🦕(brachiosaurus)

Fox

English Mastiff

Black Bear

Tardigrade (LFG)

Brown bear

African Savanna Elephant (Loxodonta africana)

Borneo Pygmy elephant (Likability)

Owl

Raccoon

Cockroach

Megalodon

Purussaurus (The "Bus-Sized Caiman")

Palaeoloxodon

Triceratops is a genus of chasmosaurine ceratopsian

Luigi Mangione

Hyacinth Macaw

Dachshund

Harambe

Anteater

Other

What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [FREE RESPONSE]

Oct 9, 8:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

6214139

OptionProbability

A person has a moral right to own a gun

We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

Other

Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

Being a billionaire is morally wrong

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

It is not possible to multitask

Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

Tech bros are really, really annoying

Capitalism has done far more harm than good

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

Music is a net negative for humanity

Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

Abortion is morally wrong

jskf's password is ***************

The first American moon landing was faked

There is no Dog

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Cars should not have sound systems

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Pet ownership is morally wrong

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

Cascadia should be an independent country

Children should not be raised in nuclear families

The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

California is wildly overrated.

The next American moon landing will be faked

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

Cars are a societal net negative

Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.

Which 2025 romance anime TV show will have the highest score on AniList?

Aug 5, 7:56 PMFeb 1, 6:59 AM

159314

OptionProbability

The Fragrant Flower Blooms With Dignity

DAN DA DAN Season 2

My Dress-Up Darling 2nd Season

Other

Rascal Does Not Dream of Santa Claus

The 100 Girlfriends Who Really, Really, Really, Really, Really Love You 2nd Season

Rent-A-Girlfriend 4th Season

Honey Lemon Soda

My Happy Marriage Season 2

Who will be officially announced as a competitor on "Dancing with the Stars" (US) before July 1, 2028?

Aug 20, 9:38 PMJun 30, 7:57 PM

84288

OptionProbability

Elle King

Zach King

Dixie D'Amelio

Jools Lebron

Lil Nas X

Emma Chamberlain

Justine Bateman

Noah Cyrus

Nikki Blonsky from the movie "Hairspray"

Raven Simone

Denise Richards

Camille Grammar

Scheana Shay

Charlie Sheen

Jinx Monsoon

Walton Goggins

Mike White

Sarah Silverman

Beanie Feldstein

Paris Hilton

Nicole Richie

Dita Von Teese

Kelly Ripa

Sutton Stracke

Jennifer Tilly

Jessica Gunning

Cris Judd

Alana Frances Thompson (aka Honey Boo-Boo)

Adam Lambert

Parvati Shallow

Joey Graziadei

Prince Harry

Daniel Stern

Owen Wilson

Luke Wilson

Mira Sorvino

Sharon Stone

Billy Bob Thornton

James Woods

Greg Kinnear

Geena Davis

Danielle Brooks

Tom Sandoval

Luann de Lesseps

Meg Tilly

Linda Evangelista

Marc Maron

Jason Bateman

Tina Fey

James Charles

Todd Chrisley

Julie Chrisley

Drew Barrymore

Katy Perry

Savannah Chrisley

Jeanette McCurdy

Meghan Markle

Lynne Spears

Jussie Smollett

Andrea Martin

Catherine O'Hara

Bette Midler

Adam DeVine

Victoria Beckham

Pitbull

Ronan Farrow

Soon-Yi Previn

Mel Gibson

Jodie Foster

Steve Carell

Dolly Parton

Andy Cohen

Christina Hendricks

Bowen Yang

Jean Smart

David Beckham

Drake Bell

Suze Orman

Woody Harrelson

Lady Gaga

Nancy Mace

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Noah Schnapp

Ann Coulter

Tiffany Trump

Michael Rapaport

Monica Lewinsky

Gypsy-Rose Blanchard

Mia Farrow

Kevin Spacey

Ariana Grande

Ted Cruz

Jeanine Pirro

Jesse Watters

Richard Gere

Kanye West

RuPaul

Jon Lovett

Eric Trump

Donald Trump Jr.

Cole Escola

Donald Trump

Anthony Weiner

Hasan Piker

Elon Musk

Harry Sisson

Rachel Maddow

Joe Rogan

Sarah Palin

---

James Carville

Ivanka Trump

Roger Stone

JD Vance

Donna Brazile

Prince William

Hillary Clinton

Woody Allen

Roseanne Barr

George Santos

Joe Biden

What is Quroe's favorite animal?

Dec 14, 11:53 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

333992

OptionProbability

Other

Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius

Cat - Felis catus

Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima

Dog - Canis familiaris

Tiger - Panthera tigris

Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus

Elephant - Loxodonta africana

Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca

Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri

Lion - Panthera leo

Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum

Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris

Orca - Orcinus orca

Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis

Hotwheels sisyphus - Hotwheels sisyphus

Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus

Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus

Wolverine - Gulo gulo

Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens

Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer

Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias

Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina

Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus

Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius

Wolf - Canis lupus

Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes

Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota

Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus

Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei

Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus

Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus

Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana

Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus

Great evening bat - Ia io

Funny valentine - Funny valentine

Yi qi - Yi qi

Aha ha - Aha ha

🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum

🚫Ineligible: Quroe's sure he is an animal - his favorite animal - female human | Venus's Homo sapiens fertile

🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)

🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]

Which common health advice is actually valid?

Oct 19, 8:22 AMDec 20, 9:17 AM

232279

OptionProbability

Doing at least 30 minute exercise daily is important

Honey as antimicrobial

Flossing is very important for average person

Typical blue light from phones before sleep worsens sleep quality noticeably

Reduced salt intake increases cardiac health for people without a preexisting condition

Listen to music to help with stress

Maintaining one correct posture when sitting is important

Honey

Jul 14, 10:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3797

OptionProbability

Down

Will "I ate bear fat with honey and salt flakes, to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 4, 9:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.94%chance

3755

OptionVotes

YES

1545

932

Will the Honey add on still be available at the end of 2026?

Dec 23, 5:25 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

85.71%chance

9171

OptionVotes

YES

245

Wild Honey Bees functionally extinct in the USA by 2030?

Jul 8, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.14%chance

9129

OptionVotes

YES

145

Will the Canadian government put someone on trial for killing Barry and Honey Sherman before 2030? (see desc.)

Feb 25, 7:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.81%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

118

116