OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Do a second rise
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Make banana bread
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Add garlic
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
put ketchup and cheese on it
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Add slurs to it
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Brush on an egg wash
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Make the bread taste good
Bake for 15 more minutes
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Taste the bread
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Use a convection oven/setting
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Make the bread great again
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Increase water by 50 g
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Replace salt with sugar
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Strawberry jelly filling
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Add caffeine to the bread
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
it needs more salt
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Use lemonade instead of water.
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
100
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89
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2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈
Lion - Panthera leo
Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer
Tiger - Panthera tigris
Elephant - Loxodonta africana
Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca
Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri
Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum
Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis
Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus
Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus
Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias
Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina
Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉
Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus 🥉
Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana
Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus
Phallic frogworm - Atretochoana eiselti
Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus
Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini
Triceratops - Triceratops horridus
Kiwi - Apteryx australis
Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus
Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria
Meerkat - Suricata suricatta
Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉
Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana
Coyote - Canis latrans
Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus
Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx
Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla
Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri
Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉
Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus
Dog - Canis familiaris
Cat - Felis catus
Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus
Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris
Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus
Wolverine - Gulo gulo
Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus
Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius
Wolf - Canis lupus
Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes
Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota
Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei
Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima
Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus
Great evening bat - Ia io
Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi
Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis
Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana
Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor
Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus
Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus
House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus
Ice Worm - mesenchytraeus solifugus
Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus
❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]
🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum
❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]
🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)
🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]
❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]
❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]
❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]
🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]
Other
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1
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1
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0
0
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0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Other
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
It is not possible to multitask
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
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11
7
4
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2
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1
1
1
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1
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1
1
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0
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0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
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0
0
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0
0
0
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0
OptionProbability
Joey Graziadei
Sutton Stracke
Cris Judd
Parvati Shallow
Alana Frances Thompson (aka Honey Boo-Boo)
Jinx Monsoon
Tom Sandoval
Savannah Chrisley
Suze Orman
Paris Hilton
Ronan Farrow
Luann de Lesseps
Zach King
Cole Escola
Walton Goggins
Luke Wilson
Marc Maron
Jason Bateman
Adam DeVine
Drew Barrymore
Jools Lebron
Elle King
Lynne Spears
Emma Chamberlain
Justine Bateman
Denise Richards
Camille Grammar
Scheana Shay
Michael Rapaport
Mike White
Sarah Silverman
Beanie Feldstein
Nicole Richie
Dita Von Teese
Jennifer Tilly
Jessica Gunning
Adam Lambert
Mira Sorvino
Danielle Brooks
Meg Tilly
Julie Chrisley
Daniel Stern
Drake Bell
Dixie D'Amelio
Jeanette McCurdy
Andrea Martin
Billy Bob Thornton
Andy Cohen
Christina Hendricks
Bowen Yang
Noah Cyrus
Raven Simone
Jean Smart
Kelly Ripa
Noah Schnapp
Nikki Blonsky from the movie "Hairspray"
Jussie Smollett
Mel Gibson
Jodie Foster
Dolly Parton
Catherine O'Hara
Mia Farrow
Owen Wilson
Victoria Beckham
Nancy Mace
---
Lil Nas X
James Carville
Prince Harry
Sharon Stone
Greg Kinnear
Geena Davis
Jeanine Pirro
Jesse Watters
Linda Evangelista
Richard Gere
Tina Fey
James Charles
Todd Chrisley
Jon Lovett
Ann Coulter
Eric Trump
Meghan Markle
Charlie Sheen
Monica Lewinsky
Pitbull
Hasan Piker
Soon-Yi Previn
Donna Brazile
Elon Musk
Bette Midler
David Beckham
Steve Carell
Woody Harrelson
Harry Sisson
Lady Gaga
Rachel Maddow
Joe Rogan
Sarah Palin
Tiffany Trump
RuPaul
James Woods
Ted Cruz
Ivanka Trump
Donald Trump Jr.
Katy Perry
Anthony Weiner
Kanye West
Hillary Clinton
Gypsy-Rose Blanchard
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Roger Stone
Roseanne Barr
Ariana Grande
Prince William
Woody Allen
George Santos
Donald Trump
Joe Biden
Kevin Spacey
JD Vance
100
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OptionProbability
Doing at least 30 minute exercise daily is important
Honey as antimicrobial
Typical blue light from phones before sleep worsens sleep quality noticeably
Reduced salt intake increases cardiac health for people without a preexisting condition
Flossing is very important for average person
Listen to music to help with stress
Maintaining one correct posture when sitting is important
91
85
66
62
55
35
24
OptionProbability
Beverly Hills Cop
Kingsman
Trolls (Dreamworks)
Austin Powers
Human Centipede
Re-Animator
Blade
Cars (Disney)
Riddick
Guardians of the Galaxy
Bill and Ted
Hostel
Rush Hour
Big Momma's (House)
Cabin Fever
Cloverfield
Charlie's Angels
Creepshow
Daddy Day Care
Unbreakable / M Night Shyamalan's Eastrail 117 Trilogy
Meet the Parents / Fockers
My Big Fat Greek Wedding
Sharktopus
Zeitgeist (Documentary)
Honey I Shrunk the Kids
Fifty Shades
Free Willy
Mighty Ducks
Oh, God!
Ace Ventura
Back to the Future
Godfather
Bloodrayne
100
83
72
62
56
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10
OptionProbability
Up
Down
66
34
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1545
932
OptionProbability
land warfare
sea warfare
diagonal building grid
available on steam within the first 12 months after release
purpura/purple as a good
marble as a good
Colosseum can be build
players can build different temples that give bonus modifiers
some buildings can be buffed with items
water can be distributed with aqueducts
honey as a good
pottery as a good
glassware as a good
salt as a good
furniture as a good
region inspired by Greece
Volcano Disaster
some ships can be buffed with items
region inspired by Egypt
land trade routes
sewage system
slaves as a population tier
silk as a good
interactive trading system inspired by the Silk Road
Hadrian's Wall can be build
region inspired by Persia
a NPC or Item is named Jorgensen
barbarians as enemies (for the combat system)
siege engines (for the combat system)
region inspired by Germania
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
85
84
81
78
63
59
55
55
55
50
45
45
45
45
37
OptionVotes
NO
YES
245
41
OptionVotes
YES
NO
159
66
OptionVotes
YES
NO
118
116
