Horizon IT News

The Jews control at least one nation's government

Imane Khelif is intersex

The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger

Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.

Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)

The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015

DHMO in the water supply

Dream faked the Manhunt videos

Osama bin Laden didn't act alone

Santa is rigged

That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)

√-1 isn't real

Smartphones listen in on private conversations

The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war

The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese

Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team

US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices

Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.

ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.

The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.

Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation

That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam

Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers

Groundhog Day is rigged

Annie Altman's abuse claims

Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.

Gamergate was right

Dead Internet theory

Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others

The NBA rigs the draft lottery

The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West

Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island

Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)

Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.

An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech

@strutheo is @notrickspringfield

There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips

John McAfee didn't kill himself

At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents

The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only

Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself

Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does

Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations

This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba

Eliezer wrote The Erogamer

The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)

Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage

China made covid 19 in a lab

Eating your veggies is bad for your health

Rory Stewart worked for MI6

At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population

The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022

Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US

FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war

The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.

The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin

As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator

Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays

My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.

The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship

Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)

The Clintons assasinated their rivals

China was not genociding Uyghurs

Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.

Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency

lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀

The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.

Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.

Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.

Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time

Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen

ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.

Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT

A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products

The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth

Sue Gray was a spy

Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy

We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.

Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.

The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars

The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.

Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)

covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese

The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop

The CIA killed JFK

Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.

The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent

The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up

Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real

"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024

The NFL is rigged

The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior

Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator

US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily

Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election

Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")

Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle

A cure for cancer has already been found

Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot

South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023

Harold Holt murdered

Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA

COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health

Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)

The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws

Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure

Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem

Ogopogo is real

QAnon

Exercise is bad for your health

A support network of close friendships is bad for your health

Israel killed JFK

Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.

Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so

Allen Iverson invented A.I.

The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around

Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency

Bush did 9/11

Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)

carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming

Princess Diana was assassinated

QR codes are satanic

Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice

Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese

Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme

China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)

Human didnt evolve from apes

Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health

Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension

Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina

Jerry Sandusky is innocent.

Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight

Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics

Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization

South Sudan has had nukes since 2023

Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic

xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition

@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie

Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s

Rationalussy isn't real.

Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.

Tupac is still alive in 2024

Bielefeld does not exist

The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen

Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first

The Mandella Effect in general is real

The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab

The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.

US government is harboring aliens

Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent

Birds aren't real

climate change isn't human caused

Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations

Jeffrey Epstein is still alive

Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil

The Hellenistic civilization invented USB

The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier

Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP

Climate change isn’t real

The moon landing was fake

The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024

You personally live in Truman Show style captivity

The Romance languages are not descended from Latin

The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization

The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.

Epstein was still alive as of Jan 2026

The illuminati runs the world

*All* health care is net negative for health

Michelle Obama is a man

Brazilian money is not real

Yeti is real or similar creature

Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina

The earth is a dodecahedron

Skibidi Toilet is real

Q is Putin

It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears

Africa isn't real

Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team

There is no female orgasm

The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.

The earth is flat

*All* vaccines are net negative for health

End of the world in 2012

Earth is hollow

Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.

Finland isn't real

Australia isn't real.

5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on

Nuclear weapons have never existed

Flossing is bad for your health

Brushing your teeth is bad for your health

HIV doesn’t cause AIDS

Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person

The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.

Grok 5 will be released

Anthropic releases Claude 5

Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly

Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins

Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI

Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026

I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025

Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong

OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form

Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year

Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks

Google will outperform the S&P

Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025

SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates

I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $1T

Thinking Machines will train and release their own model

The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours

Anthropic IPO

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.

OpenAI releases GPT-6

I will meet someone who has an AI companion

OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product

Nvidia will outperform the S&P

Anthropic will release an image/video model

SSI will raise >= $1B in a funding round

OpenAI IPO

I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

FrontierMath Tier 1-3 >= 80%

I will ride on a tesla robotaxi

I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4

At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike

Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI

An LLM will beat me at chess

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 170

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired

Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030

Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/

The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

My median ASI timelines will shorten

SSI will raise >=$10B in a funding round

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy

US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI

Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind

My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)

I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours

Grok 6 will be released

Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

The bubble collapses in devastating fashion

AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam

SSI will release a product

xAI IPO

There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI

An LLM will beat me at Shogi

There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild

There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

SSI will be valued at >= $100B

The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked

There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people

FrontierMath Tier 4 >= 80%

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 185

An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category

There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

ARC-AGI 3 Semi-private >= 50%

I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.

SSI IPO

OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers

An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters

I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour

An AGI lab will be fined >= $10B

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data

An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance

I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI

China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus

Anthropic releases Claude 6

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $5T

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 200

S&P 500 will fall by more than 50%

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5

S&P 500 will rise by more than 50%

Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form

I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week

Yudkowsky will publish a new book

SSI will be valued at >= $1 T

<3 months

4-4.5 months

4.5-5 months

3.5-4 months

>7 months

5-5.5 months

3-3.5 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

Other

*Markdown* formatting in comments and elsewhere

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

The ability to look for related markets in the API.

Linkable Comments

Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.

Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction

Merge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

Ability to short multiple choice answers

Retroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)

Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.

Short answers on free response questions

Graph showing the pool size of a market over time

A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.

Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time

We need numerical range questions. Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

A "poll" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)

Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")

Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature

Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow users to edit their comments

In "Your Trades", show each market's M$ pool

Reduced fees for long horizon markets to increase trading volume.

Upload photos with comments. Useful for proof of results and other fun things.

I would like there to be a feature that integrates something like an RSS feed. If key words or phrases about specific event occurs, trading is suspended until the market is either resolved or the RSS notification is tagged as a false positive. As what often happens, the gains of many bettors are wiped out by slow resolutions of markets.

Zoom on the chart

Statements

Kelly

The ability to subsidize markets, putting up money to enhance liquidity and encourage participation, without taking a particular side of the bet. (The thing that the ANTE option on this market is trying to do, just in a more formal and less ad-hoc way, which would also work for YES/NO markets.)

Aggregate your own trades in timeline view (avoid long list).

Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.

Trade fractional mana

When creating a free answer market, add a starting set of answers without betting.

Combinatorial Prediction Markets

Ability to delete comments.

Load pages faster (Android mobile).

More explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.

Mechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)

Filter OUT market categories on the homepage.

Private messages to users

Ability to select multiple categories of markets on the home page.

Trusted users can add category tags to markets that aren't their own

User create their own currency

Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.

Market Scanner (like stock screeners)

YES

The web will not substantially improve before 2032

WeChat

Appflowy

Agregore Browser

There wont be one next web. Web browsers of the future will run many protocols, competently, which are fairly well integrated, and for which there is no obvious general purpose winner

Orca Sandbox or something derived from it

The current web will reform before a transition can occur

Ad4m

Brave Browser

Replit

Something from Epic Games

Anytype

Logseq

Horizon Worlds

Modular Web

Playbit

VRChat

Discord

Flutter

Welkin

Gopher

Fuchsia OS

The Zed editor

emacs

World App (the one with the orbs)

X.com

Voyager 2

New Horizons

IHP-2

IHP-1

Juno

Bioshock

God of War

Wolfenstein

The Legend of Zelda

Grand Theft Auto

The Sims

Horizon (Series)

Half-Life

Metroid

Baldur's Gate

Dragon Age (Series)

Overwatch

Diablo

Skyrim

Firewatch

Dishonored

Starcraft

Hotline Miami

YES

YES

Other

Roman Republic / Empire

Late renaissance Germany

Qin/Han Dynasty China

Postclassic / Colonial period Mesoamerica (e.g. Mayan city states, Aztec Empire, Spanish Empire)

Late Horizon / Colonial period Andean America (e.g. Inca Empire, Spanish Empire)

Late pre-Colonial / Colonial period West Africa (e.g. Ashanti, Dahomey, Benin, British Empire))

No opinion

It is crushed into a singularity

Other

A black hole is in reality a "fuzzball," a quantum object that doesn't have an event horizon.

It bounces out into our universe