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The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger

Imane Khelif is intersex

The Jews control at least one nation's government

The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war

Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.

DHMO in the water supply

Osama bin Laden didn't act alone

Santa is rigged

Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers

That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)

Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)

√-1 isn't real

Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.

Smartphones listen in on private conversations

US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices

Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team

Groundhog Day is rigged

That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam

Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle

The NBA rigs the draft lottery

Dream faked the Manhunt videos

Dead Internet theory

John McAfee didn't kill himself

Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations

Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others

Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself

Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation

The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015

Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island

At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population

The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West

Annie Altman's abuse claims

Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.

Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen

The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior

An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech

The CIA killed JFK

@strutheo is @notrickspringfield

There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips

Eating your veggies is bad for your health

At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents

Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does

This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba

The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese

The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)

Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage

The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only

Rory Stewart worked for MI6

Gamergate was right

The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022

Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.

A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products

FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war

As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator

Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays

Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)

Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)

China made covid 19 in a lab

Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator

Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency

My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.

lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀

The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship

The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.

Eliezer wrote The Erogamer

Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.

Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time

Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy

Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election

Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")

Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.

The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin

Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT

The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth

Sue Gray was a spy

Harold Holt murdered

Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real

A cure for cancer has already been found

Princess Diana was assassinated

Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.

Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)

Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.

The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars

The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop

The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent

The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up

"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024

The Clintons assasinated their rivals

Human didnt evolve from apes

Israel killed JFK

US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily

Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)

The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws

Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot

The NFL is rigged

South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023

Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme

Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese

Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem

Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US

Ogopogo is real

A support network of close friendships is bad for your health

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)

Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so

Exercise is bad for your health

Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure

covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese

Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency

COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health

QAnon

Allen Iverson invented A.I.

The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around

QR codes are satanic

Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice

Bush did 9/11

China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab

Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health

Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension

Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina

Jerry Sandusky is innocent.

Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization

South Sudan has had nukes since 2023

Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic

xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition

Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)

@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie

Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s

Rationalussy isn't real.

Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight

Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.

Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics

Tupac is still alive in 2024

Bielefeld does not exist

Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first

The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab

The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.

US government is harboring aliens

Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent

Birds aren't real

China was not genociding Uyghurs

Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations

Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil

The Mandella Effect in general is real

The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier

Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP

The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen

The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024

carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming

You personally live in Truman Show style captivity

The Romance languages are not descended from Latin

The illuminati runs the world

*All* health care is net negative for health

The moon landing was fake

climate change isn't human caused

Michelle Obama is a man

Jeffrey Epstein is still alive

Brazilian money is not real

The Hellenistic civilization invented USB

The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization

Yeti is real or similar creature

The earth is a dodecahedron

Climate change isn’t real

Skibidi Toilet is real

Q is Putin

It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears

Africa isn't real

Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team

There is no female orgasm

The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.

The earth is flat

Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina

*All* vaccines are net negative for health

End of the world in 2012

Earth is hollow

Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.

Finland isn't real

Australia isn't real.

5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on

Nuclear weapons have never existed

Flossing is bad for your health

Brushing your teeth is bad for your health

HIV doesn’t cause AIDS

Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person

The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.

Other

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

*Markdown* formatting in comments and elsewhere

The ability to look for related markets in the API.

Linkable Comments

Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction

Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.

Merge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

Ability to short multiple choice answers

Retroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)

Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.

Short answers on free response questions

Graph showing the pool size of a market over time

A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.

Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time

We need numerical range questions. Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

A "poll" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)

Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")

Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature

Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow users to edit their comments

In "Your Trades", show each market's M$ pool

Reduced fees for long horizon markets to increase trading volume.

Upload photos with comments. Useful for proof of results and other fun things.

I would like there to be a feature that integrates something like an RSS feed. If key words or phrases about specific event occurs, trading is suspended until the market is either resolved or the RSS notification is tagged as a false positive. As what often happens, the gains of many bettors are wiped out by slow resolutions of markets.

Zoom on the chart

Statements

Kelly

The ability to subsidize markets, putting up money to enhance liquidity and encourage participation, without taking a particular side of the bet. (The thing that the ANTE option on this market is trying to do, just in a more formal and less ad-hoc way, which would also work for YES/NO markets.)

Aggregate your own trades in timeline view (avoid long list).

Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.

Trade fractional mana

When creating a free answer market, add a starting set of answers without betting.

Combinatorial Prediction Markets

Ability to delete comments.

Load pages faster (Android mobile).

More explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.

Mechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)

Filter OUT market categories on the homepage.

Private messages to users

Ability to select multiple categories of markets on the home page.

Trusted users can add category tags to markets that aren't their own

User create their own currency

Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.

Market Scanner (like stock screeners)

The web will not substantially improve before 2032

There wont be one next web. Web browsers of the future will run many protocols, competently, which are fairly well integrated, and for which there is no obvious general purpose winner

The current web will reform before a transition can occur

Something from Epic Games

Appflowy

Ad4m

Orca Sandbox or something derived from it

WeChat

Flutter

Brave Browser

Replit

Anytype

Agregore Browser

Logseq

VRChat

Discord

Horizon Worlds

X.com

roblox

Playbit

Gopher

Fuchsia OS

The Zed editor

Voyager 2

New Horizons

IHP-2

IHP-1

Juno

Willoughby Tucker, I'll Always Love You by Ethel Cain

Lonely People With Power by Deafheaven

Magic, Alive! by McKinley Dixon

Alfredo 2 by Freddie Gibbs & The Alchemist

GOLLIWOG by billy woods

Vanisher, Horizon Scraper by Quadeca

Let God Sort Em Out by Clipse

Bioshock

God of War

Wolfenstein

The Legend of Zelda

Grand Theft Auto

The Sims

Horizon (Series)

Half-Life

Metroid

Baldur's Gate

Dragon Age (Series)

Overwatch

Diablo

Skyrim

Firewatch

Dishonored

Starcraft

Hotline Miami

NO

Other

Roman Republic / Empire

Late renaissance Germany

Postclassic / Colonial period Mesoamerica (e.g. Mayan city states, Aztec Empire, Spanish Empire)

Qin Dynasty China

Late Horizon / Colonial period Andean America (e.g. Inca Empire, Spanish Empire)

Colonial period West Africa (e.g. Ashanti, Dahomey, Benin)

Tusks of Extinction - Ray Nayler

What Feasts at Night - T. Kingfisher

The Brides of High Hill - Nghi Vo

Navigational Entanglements - Aliette de Bodard

The Butcher of the Forest - Premee Mohamed

“Lake of Souls” by Ann Leckie in Lake of Souls (Orbit)

“The Brotherhood of Montague St. Video” by Thomas Ha (Clarkesworld, May 2024)

“By Salt, By Sea, By Light of Stars” by Premee Mohamed (Strange Horizons, Fund Drive 2024)

“The Four Sisters Overlooking the Sea” by Naomi Kritzer (Asimov’s, September/October 2024)

“Loneliness Universe” by Eugenia Triantafyllou (Uncanny Magazine, Issue 58)

It is crushed into a singularity

Other

A black hole is in reality a "fuzzball," a quantum object that doesn't have an event horizon.

It bounces out into our universe

It bounces out into another universe