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Top stories

Japan’s $200B SBI Group Taps Chainlink for Asset Tokenization

Japan’s $200B SBI Group Taps Chainlink for Asset Tokenization

Authors

28

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Horizon

Gemini 3.0 Pro outperforms GPT-5 on METR 50% time horizon?

Oct 9, 5:57 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

77.4%chance

11217909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1851

540

How many Modern Horizons 3 cards will be banned in Modern by the end of 2025?

May 17, 2:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

178984

OptionProbability

At least one

At least two

At least three

At least four

100

100

12

3

Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats Gemini 3.0 Pro's?

Nov 24, 7:29 PMDec 31, 7:28 PM

77.63%chance

192715

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1863

537

Gemini 3's execution time-horizon?

Sep 13, 8:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

221797

OptionProbability

1000-2000

100-1000

2000-4000

4000-10000

54

17

17

11

Before 2026, will Gemini 3.0 exceed GPT-5 in Metr estimated time horizon?

Oct 14, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.5%chance

211608

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

983

Will there be a Pioneer Horizons set by end of 2025?

Jan 2, 4:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.29%chance

51070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

143

Will "The "Length" of "Horizons"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 16, 1:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.83%chance

2750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

913

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

38.29%chance

4405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

788

Model with METR time horizon ≥8 hours released in 2026?

Nov 23, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.02%chance

4135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon that is an 1 hour and 30 minutes by September 2026?

Nov 30, 10:39 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

49.93%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

126

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

New Horizons does a flyby that gets a good image of another Kuiper Belt Object (see example)?

Sep 20, 11:26 PMDec 25, 12:22 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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