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Prediction markets for Horizons
OptionProbability
97
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
32
23
21
13
10
1
How many Modern Horizons 3 cards will be banned in Modern by the end of 2025?
May 17, 2:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
168964
OptionProbability
100
100
12
3
OptionProbability
28
26
18
10
5
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
24
22
15
13
7
4
4
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
18
18
18
18
14
14
OptionVotes
1400
143
Sudden jump in AI long-horizon capabilities (1-4 hr version)
Aug 19, 5:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
64.6%chance
6484
OptionVotes
1351
740
Will a model achieve a METR 50% time-horizon of 4+ hours by the end of 2025?
Aug 21, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
60%chance
8421
OptionVotes
122
82
With project 2025 on the horizon: Think we'll have situations akin to SHIMONETA occurring thanks to outlawing porn?
Jul 9, 11:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
4382
OptionProbability
81
10
9
1
Will the METR long-horizons have a >6 month doubling time for at least a 4 month period before 2026?
May 8, 4:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
80.67%chance
13312
OptionVotes
204
49
Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.88%chance
110
OptionVotes
1010
941