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Top stories

US Domestic Policy

Ex-Trump Science Chief Rallies Academia Against NIH Overhead Cuts

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for House Appropriations

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.43%chance

509368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13135

3475

Trump vetoes Epstein files bill during second term?

Nov 16, 1:24 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

11.28%chance

342792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

36

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

If the Strait of Hormuz shows as closed, will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 Midterms?

Aug 9, 10:35 PMNov 3, 11:59 AM

65%chance

171529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

734

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.3%chance

13619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1448

691

Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?

May 13, 8:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77%chance

11456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

55

Will China become democratic before 2030?

Jan 3, 10:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.54%chance

13420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

378

26

Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?

Jun 21, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

What will Gabon's 2028 'Freedom in the World' score be?

Sep 9, 3:05 AMSep 16, 6:59 AM

39%chance

324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

79

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