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Top stories

US Domestic Policy

Ex-Trump Science Chief Rallies Academia Against NIH Overhead Cuts

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for House Appropriations

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.19%chance

5010868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14635

3225

Trump vetoes Epstein files bill during second term?

Nov 16, 1:24 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

11.28%chance

342792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

36

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before Jan 20, 2031

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.41%chance

14649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1478

677

Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?

May 13, 8:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.88%chance

15606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

94

If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?

Oct 7, 2:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.23%chance

3560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1509

838

Will China become democratic before 2030?

Jan 3, 10:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.54%chance

13420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

378

26

If Democrats win the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?

Oct 7, 2:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.35%chance

3210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1210

856

Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?

Jun 21, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

What will Gabon's 2028 'Freedom in the World' score be?

Sep 9, 3:05 AMSep 16, 6:59 AM

39%chance

324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

79

By the end of 2036, will US federal law guarantee $6,000/year in cash to a non-disabled adult with no income?

Sep 30, 12:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.36%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

99

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