House Bill News

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Apr 29, 12:45 AMJan 14, 12:59 AM

16.66%chance

9239793

OptionVotes

YES

10082

1975

Will the Virginia Redistricting Referendum be certified by June 30th?

Apr 27, 3:28 PMJun 30, 3:27 PM

4.15%chance

7520093

OptionVotes

YES

10983

Survivor 2026: Whose (GOP Primary) Torch Will Trump Fail to Snuff?

Jan 5, 12:45 AMSep 30, 12:59 AM

296680

OptionProbability

Susan Collins (Senate - ME): Voted to convict Trump in 2021.

David Valadao (House - CA): The only House Republican who voted to impeach Trump who is running for re-election in 2026.

Field (Any other Targeted Incumbent not listed): If a major new target emerges add them as a standalone option.

John Cornyn (Senate - TX): With McConnell retiring, Cornyn is the new face of the "Establishment". Trump allies (like Texas AG Ken Paxton) have actively floated primary challenges against him.

No Targeted Incumbent will survive (Trump Sweep)

Bill Cassidy (Senate - LA): Voted to convict Trump in 2021 and was immediately censured by his state party. He is running for re-election and will face a massive Trump-backed primary challenge.

Thomas Massie (House - KY-04): Voted against the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act"

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

474052

OptionVotes

YES

8923

4537

Terminally Ill Adults Bill UK (assisted dying)

Feb 7, 2:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51861

OptionProbability

Bill reintroduced in 2026-27 session and passes both Houses

Parliament Act used in second session (2026-27) to pass bill

Bill reintroduced in 2026-27 session but fails again

Bill rejected at Lords Third Reading before EOY 2027

Bill stalls in Lords committee stage through EOY 2027

Bill passes Lords with significant amendments before EOY 2027

Bill receives royal assent before EOY 2027

Bill passes Lords with minimal amendments before EOY 2027

Bill passes Lords but Commons rejects Lords amendments before EOY 2027

Bill receives royal assent this parliamentary session

Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?

Jul 20, 8:28 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

54.42%chance

171802

OptionVotes

YES

10297

9614

If Labour wins the 2026 NZ general election, they are dependent on support from Te Pāti Māori to govern

Mar 21, 5:34 PMNov 21, 11:59 PM

64.4%chance

5461

OptionVotes

YES

1345

744

Will Ohio House Bill 249 be signed into law in the 136th General Assembly?

Apr 2, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.94%chance

5401

OptionVotes

YES

1303

767

Which US Congress will be the next to pass a comprehensive housing bill?

Mar 22, 5:45 AMJan 4, 4:59 AM

7380

OptionProbability

119th

120th

Other

121th

118th

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

50.46%chance

8375

OptionVotes

YES

1009

991

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Mar 13, 10:46 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

46.84%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

1065

939

Will the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?

Jun 6, 9:46 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

74.59%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

1100

964

House Bill News

Prediction markets for House Bill

Prediction markets for House Bill

Prediction markets for House Bill

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Will the Virginia Redistricting Referendum be certified by June 30th?

Survivor 2026: Whose (GOP Primary) Torch Will Trump Fail to Snuff?

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

Terminally Ill Adults Bill UK (assisted dying)

Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?

If Labour wins the 2026 NZ general election, they are dependent on support from Te Pāti Māori to govern

Will Ohio House Bill 249 be signed into law in the 136th General Assembly?

Which US Congress will be the next to pass a comprehensive housing bill?

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Will the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?

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