House Bill News

Will the US change to permanent Standard Time before 2030?

Oct 30, 5:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.01%chance

292209

OptionVotes

YES

1127

916

Will the US change to and retain permanent Daylight Savings Time before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.01%chance

181933

OptionVotes

YES

1127

892

Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?

Jul 20, 8:28 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

53.96%chance

151698

OptionVotes

YES

10382

9514

Survivor 2026: Whose (GOP Primary) Torch Will Trump Fail to Snuff?

Jan 5, 12:45 AMSep 30, 12:59 AM

201309

OptionProbability

Susan Collins (Senate - ME): Voted to convict Trump in 2021.

John Cornyn (Senate - TX): With McConnell retiring, Cornyn is the new face of the "Establishment". Trump allies (like Texas AG Ken Paxton) have actively floated primary challenges against him.

Thomas Massie (House - KY-04): Voted against the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act"

David Valadao (House - CA): The only House Republican who voted to impeach Trump who is running for re-election in 2026.

Field (Any other Targeted Incumbent not listed): If a major new target emerges add them as a standalone option.

Bill Cassidy (Senate - LA): Voted to convict Trump in 2021 and was immediately censured by his state party. He is running for re-election and will face a massive Trump-backed primary challenge.

No Targeted Incumbent will survive (Trump Sweep)

Terminally Ill Adults Bill UK (assisted dying)

Feb 7, 2:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31099

OptionProbability

Bill reintroduced in 2026-27 session and passes both Houses

Parliament Act used in second session (2026-27) to pass bill

Bill passes Lords with significant amendments before EOY 2027

Bill receives royal assent before EOY 2027

Bill reintroduced in 2026-27 session but fails again

Bill passes Lords with minimal amendments before EOY 2027

Bill passes Lords but Commons rejects Lords amendments before EOY 2027

Bill stalls in Lords committee stage through EOY 2027

Bill rejected at Lords Third Reading before EOY 2027

Bill receives royal assent this parliamentary session

Will any of the house, senate, or Supreme Court cease to exist before 2050?

Nov 15, 2:17 PMDec 30, 2:15 PM

25.04%chance

91085

OptionVotes

YES

1730

578

Will Idaho House Bill 752 (A trans bathroom bill) be enacted into law?

Mar 22, 7:59 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

76.01%chance

3780

OptionVotes

YES

1780

562

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.35%chance

3515

OptionVotes

YES

1515

660

If Labour wins the 2026 NZ general election, they are dependent on support from Te Pāti Māori to govern

Mar 21, 5:34 PMNov 21, 11:59 PM

62.64%chance

4411

OptionVotes

YES

1295

772

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

50.46%chance

8375

OptionVotes

YES

1009

991

Which US Congress will be the next to pass a comprehensive housing bill?

Mar 22, 5:45 AMJan 4, 4:59 AM

6190

OptionProbability

119th

120th

Other

121th

118th

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Mar 13, 10:46 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

46.84%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

1065

939

House Bill News

Prediction markets for House Bill

Prediction markets for House Bill

Prediction markets for House Bill

Will the US change to permanent Standard Time before 2030?

Will the US change to and retain permanent Daylight Savings Time before 2030?

Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?

Survivor 2026: Whose (GOP Primary) Torch Will Trump Fail to Snuff?

Terminally Ill Adults Bill UK (assisted dying)

Will any of the house, senate, or Supreme Court cease to exist before 2050?

Will Idaho House Bill 752 (A trans bathroom bill) be enacted into law?

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

If Labour wins the 2026 NZ general election, they are dependent on support from Te Pāti Māori to govern

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Which US Congress will be the next to pass a comprehensive housing bill?

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

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