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Prediction markets for House Commerce

[ACX 2026] How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?

Jan 7, 12:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2333825

OptionProbability

5

4

6 - 7

3

8 - 9

10 - 11

12 - 15

0

1

2

27

24

21

12

8

3

2

1

1

1

Will the US or China officially announce a Busan trade truce extension past Nov 10, 2026, by September 25, 2026?

Sep 23, 1:11 PMSep 25, 12:00 AM

96.48%chance

46503

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5716

313

Will the US or China officially announce a Busan trade truce extension past Nov 10, 2026, by November 6, 2026?

Sep 23, 1:12 PMNov 6, 12:00 AM

96.79%chance

25050

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6050

301

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

84871

OptionProbability

Gallium

Neodymium

Germanium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

13

13

12

9

8

7

7

5

5

5

5

5

4

Will the Sunshine Protection Act or permanent DST become law by August 28, 2028 (8/28/28)?

Jun 11, 11:09 AMJul 29, 6:58 AM

31%chance

5109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

94

Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?

Jun 21, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will Tejon Ranch be developed?

Nov 11, 1:32 AMNov 16, 4:21 AM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

200

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