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Prediction markets for House Education

Who will win a seat on the Mountain View City Council in November 2026?

May 17, 12:03 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

132207

OptionProbability

IdaRose Sylvester

Silja Paymer

Robert Cox

Erik Poicon

Paul Donahue

James Kuszmaul

Alexander Amoroso

Samuel Ali

95

74

68

50

8

6

5

5

Will the US Constitution be amended to revoke Birthright Citizenship before 2040?

Jun 28, 12:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.13%chance

262011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

967

923

Will the US government undergo significant, large scale decline by 2050?

Jun 24, 8:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

84.51%chance

15836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

942

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.73%chance

12716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

38

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.16%chance

18636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

852

James Talarico (D) will win against J D Vance (R) in 2028.

Nov 5, 5:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.41%chance

7542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

466

21

When will Basic Post Scarcity Economy be achieved by a nation state?

Jun 12, 2:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17412

OptionProbability

2070

2080

2060

Other

AFTER widespread Bitcoin adoption

2050

Lmao

2090

2040

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

2160

2170

2180

2190

2200

15

14

14

12

9

8

7

7

7

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️

Mar 6, 3:41 AMNov 30, 12:59 PM

47.29%chance

9169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

95

Will I (Student at UC Irvine) Win the Barry Goldwater Fellowship before I graduate

Jun 16, 6:37 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

37%chance

780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

Work suggestions for people with software engineering background and AD(H)D?

Jan 9, 1:48 PM

00

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