OptionProbability
National Wealth Fund established and granted >=£7.3 billion seed capital
Minimum wage set at level equal to recommendations of the Resolution Foundation
Voting franchise extended to 16 and 17 year olds
House of Lords hereditary peers prevented from sitting and voting
>=40k increase in weekly GP appointments
2030 ban on new petrol and diesel car sales
UK energy independence from fossil fuels
>=1.5 million new homes built
Violent crime halved
100
88
86
71
45
33
30
11
electing a PM who contemporaneously describes himself as a socialist
Any Overseas Territory or Crown Dependency no longer under British sovereignty (de jure, even if temporarily)
Coronation of King William
A major financial crisis (40% drawdown of FTSE 100)
Rejoining the European Customs Union
The House of Lords is either abolished or democratically elected
A Prime Minister not from the Conservative or Labour parties
a year where population declines by 1%
A year with inflation >10%
A game of thrones sequel (not a prequel)
A ≤500-member House of Commons is elected (incl. Sinn Féin)
Winning the FIFA world cup
Republic
Any part of the territory of the UK proper as of 2024 ceases to be under British sovereignty
House of Commons elections use a different voting method than "name one and shut up"
rejoining the European Union
UK invades a foreign country with >10k ground troops
A year with higher GDP (PPP) per capita than Canada
joining the Euro
Two new monarchs after Charles III
Has an NFL franchise
annexation by the USA
97
96
70
67
66
65
50
48
44
41
37
36
34
25
23
22
14
3
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1810
784
Chancellor after the next general election is not a member of Reform
Robert Jenrick
Other
Nigel Farage
Richard Tice
Zia Yusuf
Nadhim Zahawi
Rupert Lowe
62
9
7
4
