OptionProbability
National Wealth Fund established and granted >=£7.3 billion seed capital
House of Lords hereditary peers prevented from sitting and voting
Voting franchise extended to 16 and 17 year olds
Minimum wage set at level equal to recommendations of the Resolution Foundation
>=40k increase in weekly GP appointments
2030 ban on new petrol and diesel car sales
UK energy independence from fossil fuels
>=1.5 million new homes built
Violent crime halved
100
90
89
88
71
48
33
30
11
electing a PM who contemporaneously describes himself as a socialist
Coronation of King William
Any Overseas Territory or Crown Dependency no longer under British sovereignty (de jure, even if temporarily)
A major financial crisis (40% drawdown of FTSE 100)
Rejoining the European Customs Union
A Prime Minister not from the Conservative or Labour parties
a year where population declines by 1%
A year with inflation >10%
The House of Lords is either abolished or democratically elected
A game of thrones sequel (not a prequel)
A ≤500-member House of Commons is elected (incl. Sinn Féin)
Winning the FIFA world cup
Republic
Any part of the territory of the UK proper as of 2024 ceases to be under British sovereignty
House of Commons elections use a different voting method than "name one and shut up"
rejoining the European Union
UK invades a foreign country with >10k ground troops
A year with higher GDP (PPP) per capita than Canada
joining the Euro
Two new monarchs after Charles III
Has an NFL franchise
annexation by the USA
97
70
67
66
65
60
50
44
41
37
36
34
25
23
22
14
3
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1760
792
696
