Housing First News

Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?

Nov 6, 5:20 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

63.64%chance

403137135

OptionVotes

YES

14821

4572

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.34%chance

4853458

OptionVotes

YES

2009

482

If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?

Nov 20, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.97%chance

7814234

OptionVotes

YES

1928

787

What will be true of the next person to walk on the moon? [ADD RESPONSES]

Apr 7, 5:06 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

576458

OptionProbability

safely returns to Earth

Will attempt to say something momentous

Had been into space as of 2023

Right handed

Is a pilot (but not necessarily for the mission)

Have child/ren

military or ex military background

Isn't white

Chinese Citizen

Is the mission commander

Have a PhD

Male

Will step out with their right foot first

Have 2+ bachelors degrees

video recording is available of them falling over on the lunar surface (within 1 year of moonwalk)

Will attempt to say something momentous, and it's generally considered not to have been momentous 12 months after landing

Will attempt to say something momentous, and it's generally considered so 12 months after landing

Will be recorded (e.g. interview, podcast transcript) dissing moon landing hoaxers, either before or within 12 months of moonwalk

Will have a nickname that doesn't directly derive from their real name (eg Buzz)

Is 68 inches or taller

is 50 years old or older (at time of moonwalk)

Born in a state that majority voted for Trump in 2024 election

Films a tiktok (or similar short format film) on the lunar surface featuring at least some dancing (inside the lander counts) (video is available within 1 year of moonwalk)

American citizen

First moon-words will be a joke (e.g. "oh, did I leave the oven on?" or "hey i can see my house from up here!" or even "oh wow there's an alien life form waving at me!")

No tertiary qualification (honorary degrees don't count)

Will not be a single person; two or more people will take the first step (almost) simultaneously

Christian

Expressed doubt on whether the Apollo landings happened (digging up an embarrassing tweet from when they were 13 counts)

bald

has some kind of neural implant

is 30 years old or younger (at time of moonwalk)

Will be recorded attempting a backflip on the lunar surface (video is available within 1 year of moonwalk)

Ginger

Is transgender

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

84871

OptionProbability

Gallium

Neodymium

Germanium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

Will Anthropic's first image generation capability be based on an in-house image model?

Feb 3, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.41%chance

314631

OptionVotes

YES

1356

296

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

261864

OptionVotes

YES

1013

926

In what month will the first event be hosted in Trump's new White House Ballroom?

Oct 26, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10827

OptionProbability

Jan 2028 or later

Oct-Dec 2027

Jul-Sep 2027

Jul-Sep 2026

Oct-Dec 2026

Jan-Mar 2027

Apr-Jun 2027

before Mar 2026

Apr-Jun 2026

Who will be the first black Speaker of the House?

Oct 24, 7:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8627

OptionProbability

Hakeem Jeffries

Other

Byron Donalds

Elon Musk

First event in new White House ballroom?

Oct 26, 4:40 PMFeb 1, 5:35 PM

14603

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2029

Before July 2028

Before Jan 2028

Before July 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

In what year will the USA have the first Gay, Black president like House MD predicted?

Sep 1, 4:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10362

OptionProbability

Other

2040

2032

2036

2028

2029

2030

2031

What will happen in the 2026 US Midterm Elections (add your own!)

Aug 24, 7:16 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

8320

OptionProbability

Trump is incumbent president

An incumbent senator loses general election

US House Speaker elected on first ballot

Hakeem Jeffries becomes house speaker

Zach Lahn wins 2026 Iowa governor election

Democrats win back the house majority

Democrats win house general ballot by at least 7 percentage points

Chuck Schumer becomes senate majority leader

Democrats win both chamber of congress

The eventual 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee is a winner in an election in the 2026 midterms

An Incumbent governor loses general election

2026 midterms elections gets tilted in GOP ruling party's favor

Democratic house victory gets stolen and tilted to GOP ruling favor

Housing First News

Prediction markets for Housing First

Prediction markets for Housing First

Prediction markets for Housing First

Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?

What will be true of the next person to walk on the moon? [ADD RESPONSES]

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

Will Anthropic's first image generation capability be based on an in-house image model?

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

In what month will the first event be hosted in Trump's new White House Ballroom?

Who will be the first black Speaker of the House?

First event in new White House ballroom?

In what year will the USA have the first Gay, Black president like House MD predicted?

What will happen in the 2026 US Midterm Elections (add your own!)

Latest stories