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Prediction markets for HP

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.26%chance

224741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5159

2655

If someone accepts Eliezer Yudkowsky's offer to write an HPMOR sex scene in return for payment, will he follow through?

Dec 10, 1:00 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

92.52%chance

292468

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

915

Will HPMOR be officially integrated into a public school curriculum before 2050?

Sep 16, 3:57 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.38%chance

211561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1793

930

F1: Who will win the 2026 Aramco Japanese Grand Prix?

Mar 16, 2:09 AMMar 30, 11:59 PM

181309

OptionProbability

🇬🇧 George Russell (Mercedes-AMG Petronas)

🇮🇹 Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes-AMG Petronas)

🇲🇨 Charles Leclerc (Scuderia Ferrari HP)

Other

🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton (Scuderia Ferrari HP)

🇬🇧 Oliver Bearman (TGR Haas)

🇬🇧 Lando Norris (McLaren Mastercard)

🇫🇷 Pierre Gasly (BTW Alpine)

43

30

8

6

5

3

3

3

Will a full length HPMOR fan anime come out before the world ends

Nov 27, 6:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93%chance

13734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1326

943

What year will a publicly available, feature-length adaptation of HPMOR be released?

Dec 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7516

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

2025

2029

2031-2035

2036-2040

After 2040

Never

2030

20

18

16

11

11

5

5

5

5

3

Will "HPMOR: The (Probably) Untold Lore" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 25, 10:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.55%chance

9412

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

844

Will “histrionic personality disorder” (HPD) exist in DSM-6?

Jan 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.18%chance

4113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

49

Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)

Jun 11, 5:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

What will be true about the 3rd boss in Clash of Clans Single Player Campaign?

Mar 18, 6:49 AMJan 1, 6:46 AM

350

OptionProbability

S/he will deal more than 27000 damage per hit.

S/he will be armed with an artillery.

S/he will come to the Campaign in the 14th Clashiversary.

S/he will be more durable than M.O.M.M.A. (>55000 HP)

52

17

17

13

Is Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome (CHS) and Hop Latent Viroid (HpLVd) connected in anyway?

Apr 27, 3:12 AMApr 20, 9:20 PM

38.27%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

134

Dell is better Than HP

Feb 6, 1:42 PM

00

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