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Prediction markets for HP

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.61%chance

235041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5459

2563

Was HPIM alignment-trained?

Sep 18, 7:51 PMDec 31, 8:46 PM

92.52%chance

32522

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3516

284

If someone accepts Eliezer Yudkowsky's offer to write an HPMOR sex scene in return for payment, will he follow through?

Dec 10, 1:00 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

92.52%chance

292468

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

915

Will HPMOR be officially integrated into a public school curriculum before 2050?

Sep 16, 3:57 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.38%chance

211561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1793

930

F1: Who will win the 2026 Qatar Airways Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Sep 14, 12:50 PMSep 26, 11:59 PM

201515

OptionProbability

🇮🇹 Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes-AMG Petronas)

🇬🇧 Lando Norris (McLaren Mastercard)

🇬🇧 George Russell (Mercedes-AMG Petronas)

🇳🇱 Max Verstappen (Oracle Red Bull Racing)

🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton (Scuderia Ferrari HP)

🇲🇨 Charles Leclerc (Scuderia Ferrari HP)

🇦🇺 Oscar Piastri (McLaren Mastercard)

Other

42

20

11

9

8

5

3

2

Will a full length HPMOR fan anime come out before the world ends

Nov 27, 6:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.55%chance

161120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

556

Will "HPMOR: The (Probably) Untold Lore" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 25, 10:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.44%chance

9714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

993

Will “histrionic personality disorder” (HPD) exist in DSM-6?

Jan 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.18%chance

4113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

49

Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)

Jun 11, 5:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will there be a complete, professional looking comic book adaptation of HPMOR, before 2029?

Jun 4, 2:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.18%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

912

Will OpenAI's codex pets include options for HP Tour Guide, Clippy, or BonziBuddy to resurrect as pets by EOY2039?

Jul 13, 6:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Dell is better Than HP

Feb 6, 1:42 PM

00

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