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Prediction markets for HP

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.87%chance

234991

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5409

2578

If someone accepts Eliezer Yudkowsky's offer to write an HPMOR sex scene in return for payment, will he follow through?

Dec 10, 1:00 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

92.52%chance

292468

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

915

Will HPMOR be officially integrated into a public school curriculum before 2050?

Sep 16, 3:57 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.38%chance

211561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1793

930

Will a full length HPMOR fan anime come out before the world ends

Nov 27, 6:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.55%chance

161120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

556

Will "It's been ten years. I propose HPMOR Annivers..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 17, 4:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

1.59%chance

3807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

729

72

Will "HPMOR: The (Probably) Untold Lore" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 25, 10:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.44%chance

9714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

993

F1: Who will win the 2026 Lenovo Austrian Grand Prix?

Jun 16, 12:38 AMJun 28, 11:59 PM

11622

OptionProbability

🇮🇹 Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes-AMG Petronas)

🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton (Scuderia Ferrari HP)

🇬🇧 George Russell (Mercedes-AMG Petronas)

🇲🇨 Charles Leclerc (Scuderia Ferrari HP)

🇳🇱 Max Verstappen (Oracle Red Bull Racing)

🇬🇧 Lando Norris (McLaren Mastercard)

Other

🇦🇺 Oscar Piastri (McLaren Mastercard)

34

19

17

11

7

5

4

3

What year will a publicly available, feature-length adaptation of HPMOR be released?

Dec 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7516

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

2025

2029

2031-2035

2036-2040

After 2040

Never

2030

20

18

16

11

11

5

5

5

5

3

Will “histrionic personality disorder” (HPD) exist in DSM-6?

Jan 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.18%chance

4113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

49

Will there be a complete, professional looking comic book adaptation of HPMOR, before 2029?

Jun 4, 2:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.18%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

912

Is Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome (CHS) and Hop Latent Viroid (HpLVd) connected in anyway?

Apr 27, 3:12 AMApr 20, 9:20 PM

38.27%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

134

Dell is better Than HP

Feb 6, 1:42 PM

00

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