HR News

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4574069

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

[PROP BETS] US-Israel strikes on Iran

Feb 28, 7:37 AMMay 31, 3:59 AM

28571823

OptionProbability

Iran launches retaliatory missile/drone strikes on Israel within 72 hours

Iran attacks a US military base in the Middle East within 7 days

Iran closes or attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days

Crude oil prices exceed $90/barrel within 7 days

Any Iranian nuclear facilities are confirmed struck

The US Congress invokes or debates the War Powers Resolution within 30 days

>= 10 American soldiers are killed

A new Supreme Leader is formally named within 30 days

Iran launch strikes directly targeting Saudi oil infrastructure within 14 days

Operation Epic Fury strikes continue >= 14 consecutive days

Crude oil prices exceed $100/barrel

Mojtaba Khamenei is publicly announced as Supreme Leader within 14 days

Crude oil prices exceed $110/barrel

>= 10 Israeli soldiers are killed

Israel launches a full ground invasion into Lebanon

Houthis launch a confirmed attack on a US Navy vessel

Houthis/Yemen officially announce they are joining the war

A senior IRGC commander or provincial governor publicly defects

Mojtaba Khamenei is killed by a US/Israel strike within 30 days

Major European mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists

A US Navy vessel is struck or damaged by an Iranian anti-ship missile in the Strait of Hormuz

Iran assassinates an Israeli/US government leader

Major US mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists

Chinese-mediated ceasefire or de-escalation framework occurs

Iran-linked hackers cause a major disruption (outage >24 hr) to US/Israel

100+ civilian deaths in Israel

A nuclear weapon is used offensively

QatarEnergy resumes LNG production within 14 days

Ayatollah Khamenei makes a public address within 48 hours

Houthis successfully strike a commercial vessel in the Red Sea within 7 days

100

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6318985

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

Will testosterone for transgender HRT be available in the US on 2026-08-01?

Nov 15, 8:12 PMAug 16, 5:59 AM

87%chance

153664

OptionVotes

YES

2587

387

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

Will over 50% of US trans youth live in states banning medically recommended care (incl. HRT, blockers) by end-2028?

Jun 4, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.64%chance

15890

OptionVotes

YES

1457

488

Will the trump administration do large-scale enforcement against grey/black-market feminizing HRT?

Jan 21, 5:23 PMJan 29, 6:59 AM

50%chance

12513

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will Texas enact a law restricting HRT access for transgender adults before 2032?

Mar 19, 6:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.65%chance

13436

OptionVotes

YES

1098

911

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 18, 3:55 AMMay 27, 3:51 AM

53.61%chance

7311

OptionVotes

YES

1075

930

Will eli ehrlick be prosecuted by the DOJ for supplying people with hrt?

Feb 14, 5:24 PMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

40.27%chance

597

OptionVotes

YES

230

Will there be direct state-action that results in a reduction of HRT insurance coverage for adults before 2029 in the US

Nov 10, 4:12 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

37.17%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

130

Is Jose Luis Ricon's heart rate variability (HRV) HIGHER THAN BRYAN JOHNSON'S?

Sep 19, 5:22 PM

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Prediction markets for HR

Prediction markets for HR

Prediction markets for HR

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

[PROP BETS] US-Israel strikes on Iran

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Will testosterone for transgender HRT be available in the US on 2026-08-01?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will over 50% of US trans youth live in states banning medically recommended care (incl. HRT, blockers) by end-2028?

Will the trump administration do large-scale enforcement against grey/black-market feminizing HRT?

Will Texas enact a law restricting HRT access for transgender adults before 2032?

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

Will eli ehrlick be prosecuted by the DOJ for supplying people with hrt?

Will there be direct state-action that results in a reduction of HRT insurance coverage for adults before 2029 in the US

Is Jose Luis Ricon's heart rate variability (HRV) HIGHER THAN BRYAN JOHNSON'S?

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