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Prediction markets for HR

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47106751

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

39

29

23

9

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Apr 29, 12:45 AMJan 14, 12:59 AM

14.53%chance

8836267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10922

1820

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6520838

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

58

32

6

4

Will testosterone for transgender HRT be available in the US on 2026-08-01?

Nov 15, 8:12 PMAug 16, 5:59 AM

91%chance

175707

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3180

314

Will over 50% of US trans youth live in states banning medically recommended care (incl. HRT, blockers) by end-2028?

Jun 4, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.64%chance

15890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1457

488

Will the trump administration do large-scale enforcement against grey/black-market feminizing HRT?

Jan 21, 5:23 PMJan 29, 6:59 AM

50%chance

12513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

What will the Iranian death toll of the Iran War be at the end of 2026 according to HRANA?

Apr 4, 8:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6493

OptionProbability

Above 3,000

Above 10,000

Above 20,000

Above 30,000

Above 40,000

Above 50,000

95

43

30

7

5

2

Will Texas enact a law restricting HRT access for transgender adults before 2032?

Mar 19, 6:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.65%chance

13436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

911

Will eli ehrlick be prosecuted by the DOJ for supplying people with hrt?

Feb 14, 5:24 PMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

40.27%chance

597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

84

Will there be at least two MLB games in which a single player hits 3 HR between June 17 and July 17, 2026 (7/17/26)?

Jun 17, 12:27 PMJul 17, 11:59 PM

35.8%chance

453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

75

Will there be direct state-action that results in a reduction of HRT insurance coverage for adults before 2029 in the US

Nov 10, 4:12 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

37.17%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Is Jose Luis Ricon's heart rate variability (HRV) HIGHER THAN BRYAN JOHNSON'S?

Sep 19, 5:22 PM

60

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