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Prediction markets for HR

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4372591

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

33

33

19

15

Will the United States officially withdraw from NATO by March 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 12:50 PMMar 31, 8:59 PM

1%chance

3619325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6216685

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

52

38

6

4

Will testosterone for transgender HRT be available in the US on 2026-02-01?

Nov 15, 8:10 PMFeb 16, 6:59 AM

98.98%chance

189554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9852

102

Will testosterone for transgender HRT be available in the US on 2026-08-01?

Nov 15, 8:12 PMAug 16, 5:59 AM

81.03%chance

122079

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2067

484

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will over 50% of US trans youth live in states banning medically recommended care (incl. HRT, blockers) by end-2028?

Jun 4, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.64%chance

15890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1457

488

Will the trump administration do large-scale enforcement against grey/black-market feminizing HRT?

Jan 21, 5:23 PMJan 29, 6:59 AM

50%chance

12513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 18, 3:55 AMMay 27, 3:51 AM

53.61%chance

7311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

930

Will eli ehrlick be prosecuted by the DOJ for supplying people with hrt?

Feb 14, 5:24 PMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

40.27%chance

597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

84

Will there be direct state-action that results in a reduction of HRT insurance coverage for adults before 2029 in the US

Nov 10, 4:12 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

37.17%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Is Jose Luis Ricon's heart rate variability (HRV) HIGHER THAN BRYAN JOHNSON'S?

Sep 19, 5:22 PM

60

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