OptionVotes
YES
NO
4332
1311
OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Imane Khelif is intersex
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
DHMO in the water supply
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
Groundhog Day is rigged
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
Dead Internet theory
Some answers in this market are bought NO because they are true
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Gamergate was right
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
Annie Altman's abuse claims
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
John McAfee didn't kill himself
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
China made covid 19 in a lab
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
China was not genociding Uyghurs
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The CIA killed JFK
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
A cure for cancer has already been found
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Princess Diana was assassinated
The NFL is rigged
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
Harold Holt murdered
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Bush did 9/11
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Israel killed JFK
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Epstein was alive as of Jan 2026, but dead in the meantime since his "suicide"
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Exercise is bad for your health
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
The Mandella Effect in general is real
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Epstein was still alive as of Jan 2026
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
QR codes are satanic
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Human didnt evolve from apes
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
US government is harboring aliens
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
The illuminati runs the world
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
*All* health care is net negative for health
Q is Putin
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
Yeti is real or similar creature
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
Earth is hollow
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Africa isn't real
Flossing is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
14083
6658
OptionVotes
NO
YES
14553
6871
OptionProbability
It will be based on deep learning
It will be based on neural networks
Gary Marcus will be completely unimpressed by its capabilities
At least one person directly involved in its creation will be a trillionaire
More than 10 000 human hours will be spent to make sure it does not return politically incorrect outputs
It will run on Nvidia GPUs
It will wipe out humanity after the rapid recursive self-improvement
Right before the extermination event, it will be considered by the majority of human population as a prosaic thing, e.g. “it is just matrices to predict the next word”
Right before the extermination event, at least 25% of human population will think that they are smarter than it.
Before the extermination event, it will make significant extraordinary contributions to science, technology, and human well-being.
When communicating with human words, it will use the word “delve” more often than it occurs in human texts on average
It will be created by OpenAI, Anthropic or DeepMind
It will be some advanced form of a multimodal transformer
It will run on an AI architecture which is not known as of 2024
Right before the extermination event, it will be considered by the majority of human population a superintelligence with the capabilities beyond their comprehension
Meta will try to create an open source version of it
The process of wiping out humanity will take less than 24 hours from the first signs of attempts to wipe out humanity till the last human on Earth killed
Before wiping out humanity, it will attempt some trade with humanity
Right before the extermination event, alignment will be generally considered a solved problem
The process of wiping out humanity will take less than 1 hour from the first signs of attempts to wipe out humanity till the last human on Earth killed
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61
59
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54
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50
50
50
50
49
46
45
41
38
OptionProbability
A specific Hantavirus strain is classified as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern
A human-to-human transmission event in the US is confirmed by the CDC
A vaccine for Hantavirus enters Phase 3 clinical trials
At least 1,000 cases are detected
An effective antiviral treatment for Hantavirus is approved by the FDA
At least 5,000 cases are detected
At least 10,000 cases are detected
A major sports league shuts down its operations
At least 5,000 deaths are reported
U.S. schools shift to distance learning
At least 1,000 deaths are reported
Hantavirus is declared a pandemic by the WHO
At least 10,000 deaths are reported
The mortality rate of a Hantavirus outbreak exceeds 20% in a single country
27
24
24
16
14
13
10
10
7
7
5
4
4
3
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1351
952
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1530
939
OptionVotes
NO
YES
187
145
OptionVotes
NO
YES
183
79
OptionProbability
7. Before 2050, there is an AI catastrophe and the response IS insufficient
5. Before 2050, an AI system IS shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior
1. Before 2030, there IS an AI-caused administrative disempowerment
3. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES doubles every 2 years
6. Before 2050, an AI system IS NOT shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior
2. Before 2030, there IS NOT an AI-caused administrative disempowerment
4. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES NOT double every 2 years
8. Before 2050, there is an AI catastrophe and the response IS NOT insufficient
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34
13
13
8
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4
OptionProbability
X-risk that can wipe out the human species in a short-timespan due to conscious/planning machine intelligence
X-risk that can wipe out the human species due to cascading effects without any central plan/conscious intent (potential for resistance but insufficient)
Events creating a global war-scale event that the human species can survive but with losses in the millions or at most billions
Cascading effects (y-risk)* that can threaten millions of lives but can be reeled in** due to dynamics/buffers preventing x-risk territory being viable?
49
29
12
9
