Human Resource News

Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025?

Aug 9, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97%chance

86394795

OptionVotes

YES

5595

161

This is a solution to alignment.

Jul 26, 4:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.09%chance

4429136

OptionVotes

YES

1995

501

Will AI get at least bronze on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) before 2026?

Aug 9, 4:47 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

93.93%chance

7428716

OptionVotes

YES

3870

423

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.98%chance

1923681

OptionVotes

YES

22111

4523

Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?

Jun 11, 7:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

23.63%chance

528564

OptionVotes

YES

1798

556

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

1742

1335

Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?

Mar 15, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.38%chance

532245

OptionVotes

YES

990

983

Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2050?

Aug 9, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.63%chance

412228

OptionVotes

YES

1281

881

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

49.59%chance

171736

OptionVotes

YES

1008

992

Conditional on AGI taking over the world, what will it do to the humans?

Mar 16, 11:50 AMMar 16, 9:59 PM

18985

OptionProbability

Economically outcompete human civilization, accumulating all resources and ending civilization as a side effect

Wipe them out

fully satisfy all our deepest desires

Efficiently convert them to paperclips

Other

Proceeds to achieve its unaligned goals while ruling over humans as a dictator

Everybody drops dead at the same time

Keep them as pets

Tortures us bringing the greatest suffering possible

if the singularity occurs, will humans be apportioned resources according to their pre-singularity wealth?

Mar 20, 7:11 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13.62%chance

20467

OptionVotes

YES

1299

910

Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?

Dec 13, 3:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

13.23%chance

13446

OptionVotes

YES

1169

944

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Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025?

This is a solution to alignment.

Will AI get at least bronze on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) before 2026?

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?

Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2050?

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Conditional on AGI taking over the world, what will it do to the humans?

if the singularity occurs, will humans be apportioned resources according to their pre-singularity wealth?

Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?

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