Human Resource News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19543852

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?

Jun 11, 7:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

24%chance

538570

OptionVotes

YES

1780

562

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.08%chance

746756

OptionVotes

YES

1862

1305

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

YES

1461

556

Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?

Mar 15, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.2%chance

542271

OptionVotes

YES

997

980

Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2050?

Aug 9, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.63%chance

412228

OptionVotes

YES

1281

881

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

YES

1032

938

Conditional on AGI taking over the world, what will it do to the humans?

Mar 16, 11:50 AMMar 16, 9:59 PM

18985

OptionProbability

Economically outcompete human civilization, accumulating all resources and ending civilization as a side effect

Wipe them out

fully satisfy all our deepest desires

Efficiently convert them to paperclips

Other

Proceeds to achieve its unaligned goals while ruling over humans as a dictator

Everybody drops dead at the same time

Keep them as pets

Tortures us bringing the greatest suffering possible

First jobs to be replaced by AI?

Sep 16, 4:47 PMJan 1, 5:15 PM

19800

OptionProbability

Travel Agent - as we know it - to buy the travel packages <2027 (during 2026)

Customer Service Representative < 2028

Market Research Analyst < 2030

Compliance Officer < 2030

Human Resources Manager < 2030

Graphic Designer < 2028

Teacher < 2040

Judges < 2040

if the singularity occurs, will humans be apportioned resources according to their pre-singularity wealth?

Mar 20, 7:11 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

13.62%chance

20467

OptionVotes

YES

1299

910

Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?

Dec 13, 3:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14%chance

14456

OptionVotes

YES

1107

954

Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?

Apr 9, 9:06 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

73.83%chance

17361

OptionVotes

YES

1063

967

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Prediction markets for Human Resource

Prediction markets for Human Resource

Prediction markets for Human Resource

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?

Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2050?

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Conditional on AGI taking over the world, what will it do to the humans?

First jobs to be replaced by AI?

if the singularity occurs, will humans be apportioned resources according to their pre-singularity wealth?

Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?

Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?

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