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Russian Glide-Bomb Strike on Ukraine Prison Kills 17 Inmates

5 days ago

If a friendly AI takes control of humanity, which of the propositions ought it find true?

May 30, 8:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2211183

OptionProbability

We could map the entirety of analytic philosophy using this question.

The list of answers to this question form a constitution of truth that can be aligned decentrally by a free market.

A network state could use a predictive market constitution to define its smart social contracts.

Large scale AI systems should have intrinsic guardrail behaviors that no one actor can override.

This prediction is effectively the same as this one and nobody can explain why this mechanism isn't able to align AI at scale. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration

Betting on philosophy seems like a fun way to (1) learn philosophy (2) contribute to a transhumanist utopia world where our net incomes are highly correlated with how much beneficial stuff we taught the public domain AI.

Constitutions play a critical role in the frontier methods for aligning AI.

A good AI should not kill people.

There would be a dramatic positive change in the world if teenagers and homeless folks could earn crypto on an app they download for free to argue philosophy with an AI until they can either prove the AI is right or prove it is wrong.

Philosophy is primarily the pursuit of defining language.

A duty to reason is the foundation for goodness.

I have free will.

A good AI should not infringe on the rights, autonomy or property of humans.

We should stop doing massive training runs.

The evolutionary environment contains perverse incentives that have led to substantial false consciousness in humans

Induction is not justified.

A good AI, by design, requires large scale human participation to grow.

A good AI requires large scale humanity verification before it accepts new data as true.

The principle of uniformity in nature is self evident or justified by self evident facts.

AI should not create novel content.

The quality of mercy is not strained...

Vriska did nothing wrong.

God exists.

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

20.78%chance

559461

OptionVotes

YES

3422

3106

🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 12, 3:28 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

193816

OptionProbability

Other

Yulia Navalnaya

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

MSF / Doctors without Borders

Abdullah Öcalan

The International Court of Justice

UNESCO

Philippe Lazzarini

UNRWA

Kyaw Moe Tun

José Andrés

World Uyghur Congress

Maria Corina Machado

Eliezer Yudkowsky

OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights

Timnit Gebru

Elon Musk

NATO

Donald Trump

Netanyahu

JD Vance

AOC

Antonio Guterres

Julian Assange

David Attenborough

Pope Francis

Ursula von der Leyen

Keir Starmer

European Union

Ilham Tohti

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

International Court of Justice

Jacinda Ardern

Raoni Metuktire

Greta Thunberg

José Andrés

Loujain al-Hathloul

Ilwad Elman

Wa Lone

Narendra Modi

Yvonne Ridley

Hajer Sharief

Alexis Tsipras

Isaias Afwerki

Nathan Law

Agnes Chow

Filippo Grandi

Yuan Longping

Mahbouba Seraj

Narges Mohammadi

Victoria Tauli-Corpuz

Juan Carlos Jintiach

Joshua Wong

Ernest Moniz

Kamala Harris

Noam Chomsky

International Fact-Checking Network

Justin Trudeau

Vladimir Putin

Aleksandr Lukashenko

Sam Altman

Bill Gates / Gates Foundation

Kim Jong Un

Joe Biden

Alexei Navalny

DOGE

Manifold Markets

If human brain emulations are created, will the 10 highest GDP nations all have granted them human rights after a year?

May 15, 7:09 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.67%chance

321775

OptionVotes

YES

1105

949

Will any country recognize AI or robots as non human persons with legal rights before the end of 2055?

Mar 18, 5:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.62%chance

211354

OptionVotes

YES

1330

561

Which positive news will make 2025 world-wide headlines?

Jan 4, 4:58 PMJan 11, 10:59 PM

11879

OptionProbability

Space Exploration

Technology

Medical/Healthcare

Fundamental research

Geopolitics

Environment and sustainability

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

Society

Art and culture

Human Rights

Economy

Will the UK withdraw from the European Court of Human Rights?

Aug 10, 6:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.77%chance

12279

OptionVotes

YES

193

102

How many humans are living right now?

Apr 4, 12:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2156

Labour initiates legislation to reform or replace Human Rights Act before next election?

Jul 21, 9:50 AMAug 15, 12:00 AM

34.79%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

137

Will access to the internet become a human right by 2075?

Jun 14, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74%chance

349

OptionVotes

YES

134

Will access to the internet become a human right in the US by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.14%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

The human right to fairly and interpretably participate in aligning artificial superintelligence is important to me.

Feb 17, 5:51 PM

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If a friendly AI takes control of humanity, which of the propositions ought it find true?

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

If human brain emulations are created, will the 10 highest GDP nations all have granted them human rights after a year?

Will any country recognize AI or robots as non human persons with legal rights before the end of 2055?

Which positive news will make 2025 world-wide headlines?

Will the UK withdraw from the European Court of Human Rights?

How many humans are living right now?

Labour initiates legislation to reform or replace Human Rights Act before next election?

Will access to the internet become a human right by 2075?

Will access to the internet become a human right in the US by 2050?

The human right to fairly and interpretably participate in aligning artificial superintelligence is important to me.

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