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Prediction markets for Humane Genomics

Will Elon Musk reject Darwinian Evolution before January 1, 2026?

Dec 3, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.75%chance

5715232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5952

168

Will it be possible to sequence a full human genome for US$50 by 2026?

Aug 25, 9:46 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.49%chance

172911

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3621

551

Will any genetically modified human embryo be legally born by the end of 2025?

Oct 20, 1:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.34%chance

212216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3017

500

Will a gene therapy that edits multiple genes using CRISPR be approved by the FDA before 2030?

Jan 26, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.02%chance

271175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1262

899

Will parents be able to store data in their children's DNA by 2070?

Aug 25, 8:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.04%chance

18486

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

963

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

Feb 3, 10:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.33%chance

6135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

235

43

Will human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:26 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.27%chance

8122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

275

169

Will there be a credible (see details) announcement of human multiplex gene editing (≥5 genomic loci) pre 2026?

Apr 22, 3:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.02%chance

770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

157

Will Jose Luis Ricon's (#SpanishThiel)genome be more closely related to sulfur-crested cockatoos than 50% of all humans?

Feb 8, 9:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.23%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

78

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