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Prediction markets for Humane Intelligence

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.92%chance

2311649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2597

385

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

556

P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Dec 12, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.48%chance

674020

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

509

Will Artificial Intelligence pilot an aircraft with human passengers completely autonomously before 2030?

Jul 8, 1:06 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

56.72%chance

673627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

981

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

Jul 4, 3:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.79%chance

321826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1595

604

If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?

Jun 5, 4:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.64%chance

451611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

Will humanity detect evidence of an extraterrestrial intelligence before the year 2100?

Aug 18, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.81%chance

311029

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

843

By when will the Whitehouse acknowledge the existence of non-human intelligence?

Sep 22, 1:03 PMJan 1, 2:02 PM

4500

OptionProbability

Jan 1st 2050

Jan 1st 2030

Jan 1st 2028

Jan 1st 2029

Jan 1st 2027

Jan 1st 2026

40

26

20

20

9

3

By 2040, the dominant intelligence will be as different from modern humans as modern humans are from cro magnons

Feb 26, 1:39 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

40.61%chance

16422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1160

873

Will Artificial Super Intelligence lock in values humans generally come to disagree with?

Aug 20, 9:40 AMJan 20, 10:37 AM

51.28%chance

9237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

995

Will the first intelligent extraterrestrial that humanity encounters have what would be commonly described as eyes?

Apr 7, 9:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.55%chance

16186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

890

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