Humane Intelligence News
Prediction markets for Humane Intelligence
Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?
Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
17.81%chance
218140
OptionVotes
2148
466
Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028
Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
62.44%chance
555211
OptionVotes
1461
556
P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?
Dec 12, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.48%chance
674020
OptionVotes
1291
509
Will Artificial Intelligence pilot an aircraft with human passengers completely autonomously before 2030?
Jul 8, 1:06 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM
56.72%chance
673627
OptionVotes
1003
981
Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?
Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
72.44%chance
262593
OptionVotes
1621
617
Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030
Jul 4, 3:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
73.79%chance
321826
OptionVotes
1595
604
If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?
Jun 5, 4:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
33.64%chance
451611
OptionVotes
140
71
Will humanity detect evidence of an extraterrestrial intelligence before the year 2100?
Aug 18, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
34.81%chance
311029
OptionVotes
1066
843
By when will the Whitehouse acknowledge the existence of non-human intelligence?
Sep 22, 1:03 PMJan 1, 2:02 PM
4500
OptionProbability
40
26
20
20
9
3
By 2040, the dominant intelligence will be as different from modern humans as modern humans are from cro magnons
Feb 26, 1:39 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM
40.61%chance
16422
OptionVotes
1160
873
Will Artificial Super Intelligence lock in values humans generally come to disagree with?
Aug 20, 9:40 AMJan 20, 10:37 AM
51.28%chance
9237
OptionVotes
1046
995
Will the first intelligent extraterrestrial that humanity encounters have what would be commonly described as eyes?
Apr 7, 9:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
59.55%chance
16186
OptionVotes
1122
890