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Prediction markets for Humane Society

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.43%chance

1518900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

599

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Apr 26, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

87.72%chance

14312669

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3353

1329

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

May 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2412123

OptionProbability

Brakes hit

Huge alignment effort

New AI paradigm

Slow and gradual capability gains in AI

Enhancing human minds and/or society

Capability limit in AI

Non-AI tech

Alignment relatively easy

Brakes not hit

Alignment unnecessary

Well-behaved AI with bad ends

Major capability limit in AI

Alignment extra hard

56

49

49

48

44

40

38

36

28

25

21

20

1

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

36.31%chance

5711924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

643

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Feb 1, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.03%chance

434153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

983

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

If the solution to AI alignment involves enhancing human minds and/or society, how will this be done?

Feb 18, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:27 PM

142881

OptionProbability

Germline engineering

Brain emulation

Signaling molecules for creative brains

Adult brain gene editing

Massive cerebral prosthetic connectivity

Human / human interface

Social software for thinking

External support for thinking

Mental software for thinking

Interface with brain tissue in a vat

Massive neural transplantation

34

33

33

25

24

18

16

8

8

1

1

Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

41.58%chance

462286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

933

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

In 100 years, will Effective Altruism be broadly seen as a beneficial movement by our (human) descendants?

Dec 13, 6:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.53%chance

331443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

699

Do humans have free will?

Aug 19, 8:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.01%chance

361006

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1449

832

Will cybernetic body modification technologies become commonplace in developed countries by 2077?

Dec 21, 10:38 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

78.59%chance

27827

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1213

908

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