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Prediction markets for Humane Society

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.58%chance

7634311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

809

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.43%chance

1518900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

599

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Apr 26, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

84.05%chance

14111909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2678

1439

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

May 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

218775

OptionProbability

Brakes hit

Capability limit in AI

Huge alignment effort

New AI paradigm

Slow and gradual capability gains in AI

Enhancing human minds and/or society

Major capability limit in AI

Non-AI tech

Alignment relatively easy

Brakes not hit

Alignment unnecessary

Well-behaved AI with bad ends

Alignment extra hard

56

50

49

49

48

44

42

38

35

28

25

21

2

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Feb 1, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.4%chance

423903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

833

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

40.85%chance

462269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

919

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

In 100 years, will Effective Altruism be broadly seen as a beneficial movement by our (human) descendants?

Dec 13, 6:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.53%chance

331443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

699

Do humans have free will?

Aug 19, 8:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.76%chance

351002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1465

828

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

Aug 8, 1:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.39%chance

16948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1497

789

Will cybernetic body modification technologies become commonplace in developed countries by 2077?

Dec 21, 10:38 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

80.77%chance

25727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1339

876

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