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Prediction markets for Hydro

Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

37.6%chance

43151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12882

7763

What proportion new car/suv/light truck sales will be hydrogen powered in 2030?

Mar 16, 10:57 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

3.73%chance

213145

OptionProbability

YES

NO

3461

685

Will hydrogen cars be more popular than electric cars in 2030 in the first world?

Oct 9, 4:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.24%chance

332257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2491

820

Will the majority of new passenger aircraft sold in 2050 be hydrogen fueled?

Jan 8, 11:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

19.95%chance

311630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1159

928

Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

46.37%chance

41301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10755

9298

Will any electric or hydrogen passenger airplane that can seat at least 100 people be in commercial use before 2033?

Feb 7, 9:15 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30.19%chance

13756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

960

946

Will Enceladus' hydrothermal vents be found to harbor life that is similar (i.e., ~ redox chemistry) to life on Earth's?

Aug 10, 2:42 AMOct 11, 6:30 PM

7713

OptionProbability

life will NOT even be found there in the first place.

NO, Life will be found and it will not have similar redox chemistry.

YES, Life will be found and it will have similar redox chemistry.

60

23

17

Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?

May 22, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.58%chance

13469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

879

Will a laboratory reproduce a verified peer reviewed sample of Metallic Hydrogen by the end of 2030?

Mar 17, 9:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.91%chance

6141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

272

158

100GW of hydrogen electrolyzer capacity by 2033?

Dec 13, 4:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.56%chance

256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

73

Will China be the leading producer of green hydrogen in 2030?

Jan 2, 1:46 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.68%chance

445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will there be drake passage hydropower by 2050?

Jul 11, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54%chance

06

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

121

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