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Prediction markets for Hydro

What proportion new car/suv/light truck sales will be hydrogen powered in 2030?

Mar 16, 10:57 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

3.73%chance

213145

OptionProbability

YES

NO

3461

685

Will hydrogen cars be more popular than electric cars in 2030 in the first world?

Oct 9, 4:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.24%chance

332257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2491

820

Will the majority of new passenger aircraft sold in 2050 be hydrogen fueled?

Jan 8, 11:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

19.95%chance

311630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1159

928

Will any electric or hydrogen passenger airplane that can seat at least 100 people be in commercial use before 2033?

Feb 7, 9:15 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30.19%chance

13756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

960

946

Will Enceladus' hydrothermal vents be found to harbor life that is similar (i.e., ~ redox chemistry) to life on Earth's?

Aug 10, 2:42 AMOct 11, 6:30 PM

7713

OptionProbability

life will NOT even be found there in the first place.

NO, Life will be found and it will not have similar redox chemistry.

YES, Life will be found and it will have similar redox chemistry.

60

23

17

Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?

May 22, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.58%chance

13469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

879

In which of the following years will the net rate of chemical conversion of hydrogen into hydrocarbons be positive?

Nov 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8303

OptionProbability

2050

2040

2035

2030

35

26

21

17

Will hydrogen be the defacto liquid fuel source by 2030? 🛫⛽️🚢🚗

Oct 18, 5:28 AMJan 25, 7:59 AM

8.14%chance

8301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

137

Will Japan produce hydrogen with nuclear power before 2031?

May 9, 8:02 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

61.3%chance

4165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

79

Will Toyota stop selling hydrogen-powered cars like the Mirai by the end of 2030?

May 13, 9:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

66.34%chance

375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

71

Will there be drake passage hydropower by 2050?

Jul 11, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54%chance

06

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

121

Will the UK reach hydrogen-generated energy targets and related goals?

Jul 31, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

At least 1GW production capacity by 2025

At least 5GW production capacity by 2030

At least 10GW production capacity by 2035

Between 250-460TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

Less than 250TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

More than 460TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

50

50

50

50

50

50

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