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Prediction markets for Hydro

What proportion new car/suv/light truck sales will be hydrogen powered in 2030?

Mar 16, 10:57 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

3.73%chance

213145

OptionProbability

YES

NO

3461

685

Will hydrogen cars be more popular than electric cars in 2030 in the first world?

Oct 9, 4:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.24%chance

332257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2491

820

Will the majority of new passenger aircraft sold in 2050 be hydrogen fueled?

Jan 8, 11:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

13.89%chance

291505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1616

837

Will any electric or hydrogen passenger airplane that can seat at least 100 people be in commercial use before 2033?

Feb 7, 9:15 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.84%chance

13706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

982

896

Which of the following "colors" of hydrogen will be the cheapest by 2030? [details in description]

Oct 22, 9:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9555

OptionProbability

black/brown (coal gasification)

green (renewable electricity + water electrolysis)

gray (steam methane reforming)

white/gold (geologic: stimulated serpentinization or microbial biogeochemistry)

pink (nuclear electricity + water electrolysis)

blue (steam methane reforming + carbon capture)

turquoise (methane pyrolysis)

Other

24

22

20

11

10

5

4

4

Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?

May 22, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.58%chance

13469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

879

Will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 50% of all car sales in the USA by 2030?

Oct 1, 1:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.41%chance

14411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

244

99

When will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 90% of all car sales in the USA?

Jul 30, 8:15 PMJul 31, 6:59 AM

43.71%chance

5169

OptionProbability

NO

YES

366

214

Which country will be the leading producer of green hydrogen in 2030?

Jan 2, 2:16 PMDec 9, 10:59 PM

368

OptionProbability

China

United States

Other

Iceland

Australia

Spain

39

13

13

12

11

11

Will China be the leading producer of green hydrogen in 2030?

Jan 2, 1:46 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

46.02%chance

443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

Will there be drake passage hydropower by 2050?

Jul 11, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54%chance

06

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

121

Will the UK reach hydrogen-generated energy targets and related goals?

Jul 31, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

At least 1GW production capacity by 2025

At least 5GW production capacity by 2030

At least 10GW production capacity by 2035

Between 250-460TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

Less than 250TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

More than 460TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

50

50

50

50

50

50

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